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Emmet Kennedy of The Final Furlong Podcast targets Cheltenham’s feature race, and with Irish interest from Kim Roque and Will The Wise, the trends still point to Vincenzo as the one to be with.

In this 1xBet review, we analyse the form of the leading contenders for victory in the December Gold Cup. Kim Roque and Will The Wise are ready to challenge for the title, but the statistics favour Vincenzo. We reveal the key storylines of the upcoming race.

Kim Roque makes the trip over from Ireland for Joseph O’Brien after an impressive seasonal and stable debut on the Old Course when finishing runner-up in a novice handicap at the November meeting. The ability is clearly there, but the trends are not in his favour. Every one of the last eleven winners of the Support The Hunt Family Fund December Gold Cup Handicap Chase had run at least five times over fences, whereas he has just one chase start in Britain and three in France. Nine of those eleven winners had already won twice over fences, yet he remains a maiden, and all were rated 132 or higher. He comes here on 128, which leaves him with a little to find.

The other Irish runner, Will The Wise, represents Gavin Cromwell, who has endured a difficult start to the campaign. Even so, the horse has been running to career-high RPRs on his last two starts, suggesting there is more improvement to come. Unlike Kim Roque, he has already run five times over fences, and although he has only one chase win to his name, his sole visit to Cheltenham resulted in an excellent run in the Pertemps Final over three miles. That performance strongly suggests the track will hold no fears for him. Cromwell has also struck with winners on Tuesday, Saturday and Sunday, which may indicate the stable is finally turning a corner.

One trend neither Irish contender can lean on is the most significant one: six of the last eleven winners ran in the Paddy Power Gold Cup on their previous start and were beaten. That immediately makes Vincenzo very interesting. To finish second in the Paddy Power on seasonal debut was a huge run, made even more striking when the winner came out and bolted up in the Coral Gold Cup. A three-pound rise looks more than fair in that context, especially if he improves even slightly for the run.

Vincenzo fits the key trends almost perfectly. His racing weight of 10st 13lb and rating of 139 fall right into the historical sweet spot, and being a seven-year-old is another positive. Nine of the last eleven winners had run at Cheltenham at least twice before, and this will be his third visit. He has also run five times over fences and won twice, which again mirrors the typical profile of recent winners.

The only negatives are minor ones: seven of the last eleven winners had run twice already that season, and eight had won at least once. Only Will The Wise has won this season, but Vincenzo’s Paddy Power performance gives no reason to think he will need this run at all.

He will be three pounds worse off with Hoe Joly Smoke, who finished two and a quarter lengths behind him for the Skelton team and meets all the same core trends, as well as having two runs under his belt this season. He made smooth headway last time until making a mistake at the second last and suffering light interference approaching the final fence. On that evidence, it is perfectly reasonable for some to expect a form reversal.

However, Vincenzo’s run on the New Course behind subsequent Grade 1 novice chase winner Kaylif Du Berlais looks solid, and Hoe Joly Smoke has not yet raced on this configuration. Vincenzo should also improve for the outing, which may be enough to offset the three-pound pull. Add to that the fact he is a three-time winner at two miles, while the Skelton horse has yet to win over less than three, and he may simply have too much tactical speed when it matters. Trainer Sam Thomas is a superb target trainer and, although he has sent out only ten runners in the last fortnight, four have won. His Timeform Runners to Form figure sits at an impressive 60.8%, which only adds to the confidence.

If you want a horse at a bigger price, Ga Law makes plenty of appeal. Jamie Snowden’s team are flying, with six winners from his last 17 runners and a 69.2% Timeform RTF. Carrying 11st 8lb is never easy, but Frodon lugged 11st 12lb to victory, and eight winners since 2000 have carried 11st or more. Isabelle Ryder’s 7lb claim is a major plus, and Ga Law was second in last year’s Paddy Power Gold Cup off a 1lb higher mark. A course-and-distance winner, he could run a huge race.

But Vincenzo is the one who makes the most appeal.

The analytical piece was prepared by Emmet Kennedy — Presenter, Producer, and Owner of The Final Furlong Podcast, Broadcaster with TalkSPORT, and Broadcast Consultant —  with the support of 1xBet Ireland.

1XBET AND TERMINUS PLATFORM IRELAND LIMITED DO NOT SPONSOR ANY OF THE EVENTS ABOVE AND HAVE NO PARTNERSHIP WITH ASSOCIATED SPORTS LEGUES AND/OR ASSOCIATIONS.