By Emmet Kennedy

9:41 Del Mar

Longines Breeders' Cup Turf (Grade 1)

The Breeders’ Cup brings down the curtain on what has been a fascinating Flat season, one dominated by Aidan O’Brien, who was again crowned Champion Trainer of Great Britain and Ireland. He has won 25 Group/Grade 1s so far and is just four away from breaking his own world record of 28. Yet, while his success has been extraordinary, it hasn’t been overbearing, with Andrew Balding, John Gosden, and Francis-Henri Graffard all sending out runners who have shone in major races throughout the season.

Perhaps the difference between Flat and Jumps racing is simply that there are more high-class horses spread across multiple top yards, with a strong program of Group 1s and Festivals that build momentum through the season. Or, to put it more simply, there’s plenty to go around.

Aidan O’Brien’s first Breeders’ Cup winner came in 2001 with Johannesburg in the Juvenile, followed quickly by High Chaparral, one of O’Brien’s best ever horses and the first to win back-to-back Breeders’ Cup Turfs. Both of those Turf wins came on the back of third-placed finishes in the Arc. St Nicholas Abbey, Found, and Highland Reel had also run in the Arc before winning the Turf for Ballydoyle, so any concerns about Minnie Hauk having had a hard race in France are probably unfounded.

She was narrowly beaten there and finished five lengths clear of the third, while Kalpana has since boosted the form by winning a Group 1 on British Champions Day. Even so, Stateside morning-line odds of 8/5 look optimistic, and 1xBet’s quote of around Even money feels about right.

However, while I fully expect Aidan to be the standalone winning most trainer in Breeders Cup history by the end of the meeting, those odds are not exactly appealing given how strong this field is, and the fact that she has been on the go since May.

Rebel’s Romance is one of the biggest stars in world racing. A winner of 20 of his 29 races, including nine Grade 1s, he bids to become the first three-time winner of the Breeders’ Cup Turf, and only the third horse in history to win three times at the meeting. He is unbeaten in three starts on firm ground in North America, and his latest RPR is just one pound below Minnie Hauk’s Arc runner-up rating. At seven years old, he may be vulnerable to an improver, but he still has the ability, and it is hard not to root for him.

If a gelding is going to upstage Minnie Hauk, it might be Goliath, who beat Rebel’s Romance the last time they met in the 2024 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes. He got an end-to-end gallop that day on good to firm ground, conditions he should get again on Saturday. He earned an RPR of 127, with subsequent Arc winner Bluestocking, 2023 Turf winner Auguste Rodin, and Rebel’s Romance (5½ lengths behind) all in his wake. That is strong form.

He has not looked quite the same horse since, although he has posted RPRs of 124, 122, and 124 in three of his last seven runs. Minnie Hauk has run to 124 in each of her last two races, and Rebel’s Romance’s best in his last six was 123 at Belmont at the Big A.

Goliath is well named, a big unit, and some of my colleagues on the Final Furlong Podcast believe his size may not suit Del Mar’s tight turns. Even so, he runs for the Mickael Barzalona and Francis-Henri Graffard partnership, who have already combined to win the King George, the Champion Stakes with Calandagan, and the Arc with Daryz.

Goliath won his second Group 1 last time out in Germany, and Dubai Honour has proven a solid yardstick in international races, boosting the form when splitting two exciting horses in a French Group 2 afterwards.

Quotes of 9/1 with 1xBet look fair for a horse who is well drawn to attack if Barzalona chooses to be positive early, as he was when making all at Baden-Baden last time. If he opts to take a lead instead, he still has the right running style for a Breeders’ Cup Turf, and if his excellent trainer has him back to form, he could cause an upset in a cracking race.

Minnie Hauk and Rebel’s Romance deserve to head the market, but Goliath has the class to run them both close if back to his best.

10:25 Del Mar

Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic (Grade 1)

The absence of ante-post favourite Sovereignty, who has been peerless in his last four starts, is a major disappointment. In his absence, many expected defending champion Sierra Leone to be the new favourite. After all, he was second favourite before Sovereignty came out. Yet bettors, morning-line compilers, and odds traders seem obsessed with Fierceness, who has started favourite in four of his last five runs, including last year’s Classic, when Chad Brown’shorse brushed him aside.

Todd Pletcher’s colt looked visually impressive last time in the Pacific Classic, but Journalism was poorly positioned and given an awful ride. His connections have now replaced the jockey with Jose Ortiz, and the Preakness winner might emerge as the main danger.

At 3/1, however, Sierra Leone looks a confident bet. His win in the Whitney Stakes two runs back was an outstanding performance, with Fierceness finishing nearly six lengths behind. Last time out in the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Saratoga, Flavien Prat appeared to consider pulling him up after he collided with Irad Ortiz Jr., who had been knocked off Mindframe. It was understandable that he was concerned for his fellow rider, and the incident left them 18 lengths off the lead. To recover and still finish second was remarkable.

It was not an ideal prep, but he was beaten further in his prep race for the Classic last year and still came back to win. Only one horse has ever won back-to-back Breeders’ Cup Classics, with Cat Thief, Curlin, Zenyatta, and Arrogate all trying and failing. But Sierra Leone has the power, pace, and resilience to emulate Tiznow and win his second Classic. 3/1 looks too big.

11:05 Del Mar

FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Mile presented by PDJF (Grade 1)

Notable Speech is unreliable and was beaten fair and square in the Mile last year, so he looks worth taking on.

The Lion In Winter was favourite for both the 2000 Guineas and the Derby this time last year, and while he hasn’t quite fulfilled that potential, he has gone close in three Group 1s. Had he won two weeks ago, he would be a clear second favourite for this. But he didn’t, and the horse who beat him two starts back, Sahlan, looks a serious player.

Sahlan is a progressive young horse with only six career starts and comes here on the back of a career-best in the Prix du Moulin de Longchamp, where he held off the fast-finishing Rosallion. Richard Hannon’s horse finished ahead of Notable Speech both times they met this season and arrives fresher than The Lion In Winter, who was just half a length behind him in France.

Both should be in the mix, but Sahlan looks the one still improving. He can become the first French-trained winner of the Mile since Karakontie in 2014.

As part of the 1xBet review Breeders’ Cup, an analysis of past race results and key statistics was conducted. This information is designed to help place informed bets while following the core principles of responsible gaming. The analytical piece was prepared by Emmet Kennedy— Presenter, Producer, and Owner of The Final Furlong Podcast, Broadcaster with TalkSPORT, and Broadcast Consultant —  with the support of 1xBet Ireland. 

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