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In this 1xBet review, we will analyse the Grand National clues, key trends, and the best betting plays on the key events of the historic race.

The Trophy, first run in 1949, is one of the most informative staying handicaps in the National Hunt calendar.

Its roll of honour includes some outstanding names, most notably Desert Orchid, the four-time King George VI Chase and Cheltenham Gold Cup winner, who landed the race in 1990.

It has also proven a strong Grand National trial, with Rhyme ‘n’ Reason and Rough Quest both winning here before going on to Aintree glory.

Only three horses have ever won the race twice — Pendil, Docklands Express and Nacarat — underlining just how difficult it is to dominate this contest.

Katate Dori – trends horse with a strong profile

Attempting to join that select group is the favourite Katate Dori, trained by Sam Thomas, who has won two of the last three renewals, including with this horse last year.

That victory came by 15 lengths, and he now returns off 11lb higher.

His first two runs this season were underwhelming, but he bounced back last time, only being caught close home by Herakles Westwood. He’s been raised just 1lb for that effort, which looks fair.

From a trends perspective, he stands out:

• 9 of the last 12 winners carried 11st or less;

• 8 of the last 12 were rated 134+.

That creates a narrow sweet spot — and Katate Dori, off 10st 12lb and rated 136, is the only runner in the field to tick both boxes.

Further positives:

only 1 of last 12 winners won last time out;

but 9 of 12 placed — which he did.

The only notable negative:

⭐ none of the last 12 winners started favourite. Even so, he fits too many of the key metrics to ignore.

Hoe Joly Smoke – step up in trip the key

Hoe Joly Smoke represents the Dan Skelton yard and sits second in the market.

At first glance, his recent defeats off this mark don’t scream “well handicapped”, but context matters.

Those runs came over shorter trips — the Paddy Power and the December Gold Cup — and in the Paddy Power he was staying on strongly in soft ground, suggesting this return to 3m will suit.

His record at around this distance reads:
2-1-1-3

That hints there may still be a few pounds in hand at this trip.

However, there are negatives:

• unplaced last time out;

• rated 131, below the key 134+ threshold;

• 7 of last 12 winners had already won that season — he hasn’t.

He’s not without a chance, but he needs things to fall right.

Kdeux Saint Fray – unexposed but lacks experience

The Anthony Honeyball runner Kdeux Saint Fray is one of the more interesting improvers.

He’s gone up 6lb across his first four chase starts and, like Hoe Joly Smoke, has shaped as though a step up in trip will suit, finishing strongly over intermediate distances.

He also has a win in a competitive novice handicap at Cheltenham, which adds substance.

But trends are against him:

• all of the last 12 winners were aged 7–9 — he’s 6;

• 10 of the last 12 had at least three runs over 3m — he lacks that experience.

He has upside, but this may come a year too soon.

The Doyen Chief – course specialist with questions

The Doyen Chief will be popular given his 2-from-2 record over course and distance, including a determined neck success last time.

He’s only been raised 1lb, which looks lenient at first glance.

But:

• last-time-out winners have a poor record in this race;

• he now carries 11st 2lb, the highest winning weight since 2018.

More importantly, his jumping was far from fluent last time. He’ll need to be sharper in a deeper race like this.

Lookaway – tough and overpriced

One of the more interesting outsiders is Lookaway for Neil King.

He comes here off a win in a relentless, strongly run race over 2m4½f, where he pulled 24 lengths clear with the runner-up. The handicapper has only raised him 4lb, largely because the rest of the field collapsed.

He’s lightly raced over fences (4 starts), but his overall experience is strong:

• 12 hurdle runs

• 2 bumper runs

• Grade 2 hurdle winner at Cheltenham

• Grade 2 bumper winner at Aintree

He’s also remarkably consistent:

• only 4 times outside the top three in 18 starts

That toughness is a major asset in a race like this, especially stepping up in trip. He’s also 1 from 1 at the track, which is another plus. He may not tick as many trends as the principals, but at a price, he looks overlooked.

Verdict

This looks like a race where the trends point strongly in one direction.

Most likely winner

Katate Dori

He fits the key weight, rating and profile trends and comes from a yard that targets this race well.

Each-way value

Lookaway

Tough, consistent, and overpriced — the type who can outrun his odds and give you a run for your money.

Final betting note

As always with handicap chase betting, it pays to balance trends with price.

Check the latest Trophy odds with 1xBet Ireland before placing your bets, and keep an eye on market moves as race time approaches. Every detail matters and can significantly impact the event's outcome. Follow the key 1xBet horse racing on our convenient platform, which provides all the useful information about participants’ form and important statistics. With this data, you will make a well-informed prediction and choose the optimal market.

The analytical piece was prepared by Emmet Kennedy — Presenter, Producer, and Owner of The Final Furlong Podcast, Broadcaster with TalkSPORT, and Broadcast Consultant —  with the support of 1xBet Ireland.

1XBET AND TERMINUS PLATFORM IRELAND LIMITED DO NOT SPONSOR ANY OF THE EVENTS ABOVE AND HAVE NO PARTNERSHIP WITH ASSOCIATED SPORTS LEGUES AND/OR ASSOCIATIONS.