Scottish Grand National Betting Tips: Trends, Key Contenders and Value Angles
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In this 1xBet Ireland review, we will take a look at how Ayr’s feature staying handicap presents a fascinating puzzle, with trends pointing towards value beyond the market leaders.
Whilst the Scottish Grand National has been run at Ayr since 1966, its history stretches back much further. It was previously staged at Bogside Racecourse for nearly 100 years, having begun life in Renfrewshire in 1858 as a race run largely over stone walls.
Three horses won the race three times in its Bogside Days, Couvrefeu III, Southern Hero and Queen’s Taste. Since the move to Ayr, only three horses have managed to win it twice, the most recent being Vicente in 2017.
King Of Answers
There are no previous winners in this year’s field, but Scottish-based Lucinda Russell, successful in 2021, saddles one of the favourites in King Of Answers, now training in partnership with Peter Scudamore.
He has been a revelation over fences this season. After an educational debut at Hexham, he followed up with two wins at Kelso, either side of being outpaced at Windsor. His Cheltenham run was excellent, finishing second to Holloway Queen while conceding 6lb and pulling 11 lengths clear of the third.
Captain Cody unseated in that same Cheltenham race before going on to win this last year. However, this has generally not been a race for novices.
Promontory: Better Than His Mark
Promontory has been given a BHA mark of 127, which on the face of it looks harsh off the back of a 6½-length win in the Dublin National Handicap Chase from a mark of 113. The horses that finished second, third, and fourth were rated 100, 113, and 114 respectively, with the fourth-placed runner, the joint highest-rated in the field, thoroughly exposed after 27 starts.
Promontory, by contrast, is the opposite, having had just four chase starts. As a brother to The Big Breakaway, who reached a mark of 151 over fences, and Kildisart, who was rated 156, he has the pedigree to rate significantly higher.
By Fame And Glory, a sire of numerous high-class performers, including last week’s Aintree Grade 1 winner Home By The Lee, Promontory arrives here on the back of a career-best effort, having won the longest race of the year at Leopardstown. He shaped as though a further step up in trip would suit and goes into this marathon contest as one of the least exposed runners in the field.
Irish Grand National-winning jockey Donagh Meyler has partnered him on his last two starts and is a major asset in the saddle. Off a low weight of 10st 10lb, he could give Sarah Connell a notable success.
Eight of the last eleven winners had run at least seven times over three miles or further and he has had six. In terms of overall experience, he aligns well with the trends. Ten of the last eleven winners had at least five chase starts and nine had run five times that season, both of which he satisfies.
His biggest obstacle is his weight of 11-12. Nine of the last eleven winners carried less than 11-3. The last to carry this much was Grey Abbey in 2004 and only Playlord in 1969 and Red Rum in 1974 have carried more to victory at Ayr.
Kim Roque
Kim Roque is also towards the head of the market for Joseph O’Brien and has been progressive since arriving from France.
He ran well behind Kdeux Saint Fray at Cheltenham, followed that with a solid fourth in the December Gold Cup, and returned after a break with a respectable fifth at the Dublin Racing Festival before staying on into fourth in the Kim Muir.
However, he fails to match several key trends.
He has only one run over three miles or further and has had just four runs this season. Nine of the last eleven winners had won over three miles or further and eight had won at least twice over fences. His sole chase win came over two miles three and a half furlongs at Dieppe.
His rating of 130 is also below the typical range, with all of the last eleven winners rated between 136 and 146. Perhaps the most telling stat is his age. Nine of the last eleven winners were aged between seven and ten, while he is just six. Only two six-year-olds have won this race since 1947.
Ask Brewster ticks more boxes than most
He has had seven starts over three miles or further and has won five of them. His Kim Muir victory saw him raised 7lb to a mark of 135, which fits the ratings trend perfectly, and his rider’s claim reduces his weight to 10-11.
Even the presence of a 7lb claimer is not a negative. Rob James claimed the same amount when winning this race in 2022 for this yard.
The concern is stamina. He won over three miles and four furlongs earlier in his career, but that came off a mark 23lb lower on good ground. On his only subsequent attempt at that trip, he was well beaten at Sandown.
Up 7lb for a narrow win, he will need to improve again for this stiffer test.
Isaac Des Obeaux brings a proven staying profile
He won the Midlands National by eight lengths last time out, fully justifying a 7lb rise. Like Ask Brewster, he has strong experience over marathon trips and has two chase wins to his name. Since undergoing a wind operation, he has not finished outside the first three.
His main concern is his weight of 11-8. However, Vicente carried more to win this race in 2017.
There are clear reasons for his improvement. His latest run produced a career-best RPR, 11lb higher than his previous best and 17lb above anything he achieved prior to his wind operation.
With the Ditcheat yard currently operating at a 22 percent strike rate, further progress looks likely, particularly over this trip.
Road To Home
Road To Home gives Willie Mullins a strong hand as he bids for a third straight Scottish Grand National, having already dominated the Aintree version in recent years with I Am Maximus and Nick Rockett.
It is notable he relies on a sole runner here. Road To Home arrives off a career-best effort when second to Ask Brewster in the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup, and while a 6lb rise demands more, the form looks solid. He is 7lb worse off at the weights with the favourite Kim Roque who was behind him at Cheltenham, while Monbeg Genius has since franked the form, finishing fourth in the Irish National.
Still lightly raced over fences, he shaped well at Cheltenham, jumping fluently before giving way late up the hill, conceding weight to the winner, who benefited from a 7lb amateur allowance.
He remains a maiden over fences and lacks experience beyond 3m, so does not tick every trends box. However, Mullins has won this with a similar type before in Captain Cody, and further improvement looks likely.
Progressive profile, strong connections, and solid form: easy to see the case.
The Nicholls Number 1
I’ve written in the 1xBet blog before about how much I liked the form of the Timeform race on Trials Day, and while the winner, Jordans Cross, has been disappointing on his two subsequent starts, Quebecois built on his runner-up finish to run third in the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.
The winner, Johnnywho, subsequently finished fourth in the Grand National, beaten only 4¼ lengths, which adds strength to the form. The Scottish Grand National was nominated as a potential target immediately after that run, and Quebecois appeals as well handicapped off a mark of 144.
He remains unexposed, with just five starts over fences, and there is likely more to come now stepping up to marathon trips. He is a half-brother to the Grade 1 Albert Bartlett winner Brindisi Breeze and has already shown an affinity for this track, having won over hurdles over 3m½f at last year’s Scottish Grand National meeting.
This may be one of the final opportunities for Harry Cobden to land a major winner for Paul Nicholls before becoming JP McManus’s number one rider next month. It is therefore notable that Cobden keeps the ride, and despite a big weight, Quebecois can be expected to run a big race.
Shortlist
Paul Nicholls has an excellent record in this race, and Isaac Des Obeaux appeals as a proven stayer arriving in peak form, with potential for further improvement at the trip. But, I prefer the profile and form of Quebecois, who still makes plenty of each-way appeal at odds of 7/1+.
Irish-trained runners have won the last two renewals, and Joseph O'Brien’s Kim Roque looks poised to land a major handicap after several strong efforts this season. His horses are in fantastic form on the flat and over jumps, and he arguably should have won the Grand National last weekend with Jordans Cross.
Willie Mullins has dominated this race in recent years, saddling the 1st, 4th, 5th, and 6th two seasons ago, and the 1st and 2nd last season. This season he relies solely on Road To Home, who could take another step forward over this marathon trip.
Promontory never made the track when trained by Willie Mullins, but has a nice pedigree and looks well handicapped to give Sarah Connel a famous win, and the booking of jockey Donagh Meyler makes him a very attractive betting proposition especially at odds of 20/1 with 1xBet Ireland.
Best Bet: Promontory
Alternatives: Quebecois, Road To Home, Kim Roque and Isaac Des Obeaux
The major event in Ayrshire opens up plenty of exciting opportunities for all fans of 1xBet Ireland horse racing. By analysing statistics, long-distance performance experience, and current form, it’s possible to compile a shortlist of underdogs capable of overshadowing the top contenders.
Check the latest Scottish Grand National odds with 1xBet Ireland before placing your bets. Best of luck.
The analytical piece was prepared by Emmet Kennedy — Presenter, Producer, and Owner of The Final Furlong Podcast, Broadcaster with TalkSPORT, and Broadcast Consultant — with the support of 1xBet Ireland.
1XBET AND TERMINUS PLATFORM IRELAND LIMITED DO NOT SPONSOR ANY OF THE EVENTS ABOVE AND HAVE NO PARTNERSHIP WITH ASSOCIATED SPORTS LEAGUES AND/OR ASSOCIATIONS.
