Irish Derby Weekend Betting Tips: Estrange and Benvenuto Cellini Head Curragh Selections
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The Curragh takes centre stage after Royal Ascot with two Group 1 highlights. In this 1xBet Ireland review, Emmet Kennedy analyses the Pretty Polly Stakes and the Irish Derby, identifying the strongest betting angles and best-value selections.
Following the conclusion of Royal Ascot, attention switches to the Curragh for a superb weekend featuring two Group 1 contests, the Pretty Polly Stakes on Saturday and the Irish Derby on Sunday.
15:40 Curragh - Pretty Polly Stakes (Group 1) - 1m2f
The betting is dominated by fillies emerging from the Oaks, with the winner, third and last home among the first four in the market. However, there are reasons to oppose that form.
Legacy Link and Cameo have both been beaten as favourites since Epsom, while the Oaks itself may have been an unreliable guide. The leaders went a relentless gallop on rain-softened ground, allowing the first two home to come from well off the pace. It is also a quick turnaround after a demanding Classic, leaving little recovery time for those involved.
That may allow Sugar Island to reverse Epsom form with Thundering On under more restrained tactics, but she too may have had a hard race.
The more solid option is Estrange.
David O'Meara's mare has endured an interrupted career, making just eight starts as a five-year-old, but she has won five of them and finished out of the frame only once.
She returned with a comfortable Group 3 success at Carlisle, recording an RPR of 112, only 5lb below her career-best figure achieved when runner-up to Minnie Hauk in last year's Yorkshire Oaks. She also finished second to Kalpana on Champions Day at Ascot, giving that form a particularly solid look.
The Carlisle form has already been boosted, with third-placed Coedana winning a Listed race next time.
Although returning to 1m2f for the first time since 2024, Estrange possesses enough tactical speed for this trip and looks the most reliable betting proposition.
16:10 Curragh - Irish Derby (Group 1) - 1m4f
The Irish Derby once again revolves around the Epsom form, with five Derby runners among the leading contenders.
The horse worth forgiving is Benvenuto Cellini.
Officially deemed a non-runner after becoming unsettled in the stalls, he effectively lost all chance before the race had properly begun. The soft ground was another negative, having also disappointed on testing conditions in last year's Futurity Trophy.
His Chester Vase victory remains one of the strongest Derby trials of the season. The form has already begun to work out well, with fourth-placed Del Maro subsequently beaten only a nose in both Listed company and the Queen's Vase at Royal Ascot. His trainer has chosen to run him at the Curragh, having previously stated he would run at Royal Ascot where he was likely to get fast ground. The weather has been fantastic, and even with the forecast rain on Saturday, conditions should be ideal for the son of Frankel. At the head of the market, Derby winner Christmas Day is respected but arrives after a career-best effort on soft ground and faces a relatively quick turnaround. Similar reservations apply to James J Braddock, while Raaheeb still has something to prove after just two career starts, but is a highly exciting prospect.
The value alternative is A Boy Named Susie.
He improved 10lb on Racing Post Ratings when staying on strongly for fourth in the Prix du Jockey Club despite meeting traffic at a crucial stage. He had previously shaped with equal promise when finishing within a length of Christmas Day in the Ballysax Stakes.
Both efforts came over around 1m2f and his running style strongly suggests another step forward over the Derby distance.
Verdict
Pretty Polly Stakes: Estrange looks the percentage call. She arrives in peak form and avoids the question marks surrounding the Oaks runners.
Irish Derby: Benvenuto Cellini is worth forgiving for Epsom and can bounce back on quicker ground. At bigger odds, A Boy Named Susie makes plenty of each-way appeal and looks capable of improving significantly for the step up to 1m4f.
Follow the main 1xBet Ireland horse racing events at The Curragh and root for your favourites!
The analytical piece was prepared by Emmet Kennedy — Presenter, Producer, and Owner of The Final Furlong Podcast, Broadcaster with TalkSPORT, and Broadcast Consultant — with the support of 1xBet Ireland.
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