In this 1xBet review, we cover the most important hurdle races which will be held on November 29. We’ve gathered interesting historical facts, key trends, and statistics, as well as assessed the participants’ chances.

Fighting Fifth Hurdle (Grade 1)

The Fighting Fifth Hurdle dates back to 1969 and, under various names, is considered by many to be the first leg of the Champion Hurdle Triple Crown, with the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton forming the middle leg. The most successful horses in the race’s history are Comedy Of Errors and Birds Nest, who each won it three times in the 1970s.

This year, only one previous winner lines up: Constitution Hill, representing the race’s most successful trainer Nicky Henderson, who has won it nine times. Constitution Hill took the 2022 running on his way to Champion Hurdle glory for owner Michael Buckley.

Last season began well enough with a solid performance in the Christmas Hurdle, but an underwhelming effort in the International Hurdle was followed by back-to-back falls at Cheltenham and Aintree, then a safer but indifferent run at Punchestown. Nine of the last thirteen winners were aged between five and seven, which means that now rising nine he has several questions to answer.

Anzadam

Anzadam was a “wise-guy” Champion Hurdle pick for many last season, and with four runs and four wins to his name he remains open to considerable improvement. In his Irish runs he beat Kala Conti by six and a half lengths in the Grade 3 Willow Warm Hurdle at Fairyhouse, then defeated Beacon Edge by eleven lengths in the Grade 3 Limestone Lad Hurdle at Naas. Those rivals are decent but not strong enough to confirm him as a genuine Champion Hurdle contender just yet.

Eleven of the last thirteen Fighting Fifth winners had won at least four times over hurdles, which he has, but the same number had at least five hurdle runs, so experience could be a concern. Experience at graded level is an even bigger concern, as eleven of the last thirteen winners had already won a Grade 1 or Grade 2.

The New Lion

The New Lion has the same number of hurdle runs and wins as Anzadam, but a bumper run gives him slightly more experience. Crucially, he is already a two-time Grade 1 winner. He took the Challow Hurdle at Newbury and the Turners Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, ending a seventeen-year run of Challow winners failing to follow up at Cheltenham.

His Turners victory was even more impressive on review. He came from near last, overcame a scruffy jump at the final hurdle, and still surged past Final Demand, beating him by five and a half lengths. Final Demand then won the Punchestown Champion Novice Hurdle by sixteen lengths. The form is elite and must be taken seriously. We may be looking at a genuine superstar in The New Lion. Trainer Dan Skelton won a Grade 1 last weekend, adding to an impressive list of feature races won so far this season. The New Lion bids to be only the second horse to win the Turners Novice Hurdle and the Fighting Fifth in the same year in the last 25 years. A Challow Hurdle winner doesn’t scream Champion Hurdle material, but such was the ease of his victory at Newbury, and to then become the first horse in 20 years to win the Challow Hurdle and follow up with a win at the Cheltenham Festival suggests this could be a special horse.  

Dan Skelton has said this is the best horse he has trained, and the way The New Lion cruised through his race at Cheltenham suggests he will have no problem dropping back to two miles.

Anzadam is exciting, but I backed him at 50/1 for the Champion Hurdle this time last year and injury wiped out his season. That was the second Festival he has missed, so quotes in single figures for March make no appeal at all. You could argue you are getting roughly the same price for him to win this as you are for the Champion Hurdle and plenty will be tempted.

Constitution Hill will take plenty of beating if he is anywhere near his brilliant best, but that is a major if, and he meets two serious young horses whose connections will not be afraid to take him on. The New Lion only has 5lb to find with Constitution Hill on Timeform and 3lb on RPRs, and he is certain to have strengthened again over the summer. Skelton’s team are flying and he looks the one with the most upside.

It should be a cracking renewal and it will be fascinating to see who prevails in round one of what could become a thrilling rivalry between these three horses, who will hopefully meet again at Kempton and Cheltenham. Can one of them win the Champion Hurdle Triple Crown?

Gold Cup Handicap Chase

The  Gold Cup has been run since 1957 and has produced some truly top-class staying chasers. Nine Cheltenham Gold Cup winners have taken this race, including Mandarin, Arkle and Denman, who share the record as dual winners.

Sam Thomas, who rode Denman to the first of his wins in 2007, is represented this year by the well-fancied Katate Dori. Thomas has made a superb start to the season and was operating at a 40 percent strike rate at the time of writing.

Katate Dori also had a strong campaign last season. His first four chase runs produced two wins and a second, before he bolted up by fifteen lengths in a Grade 3 handicap chase at Kempton. That came off a 10lb lower mark, but the manner of victory suggests he belongs in a race like this. His poor run in the Ultima can be forgiven, as can his low-key return over hurdles. In fact, that run may work in his favour, as ten of the last twelve winners had already run at least once earlier in the season.

The concern is ratings. Ten of the last twelve winners were rated 145 or higher, and he sits significantly below that on 135.

This year’s favourite, Myretown, also falls short of that benchmark with a rating of 142. He has not been seen since the Cheltenham Festival and attempts to become only the third horse in the last twelve years to win this without a prep run. He must also shoulder 15lb more than in the Ultima. He is clearly a talented horse, but plenty is against him here.

Resplendent Grey returned with a Listed win over Handstands at Carlisle on November 2nd over 2m4f, so fitness will not be an issue. His career-best run came in the 3m4½f Handicap at Sandown on his final start last season, so his reappearance win at a shorter trip can be marked up. His rating of 153 means class should not be a problem, but he has to carry 11st 8lb, and ten of the last twelve winners carried 11st 4lb or less.

On the positive side, he has seven chase starts, which gives him an experience edge over Katate Dori and Myretown, who each have five. All of the last twelve winners had run at least six times over fences.

Spanish Harlem is closely weighted with Resplendent Grey and has twelve chase starts, so experience will certainly not be a concern. Although the words experienced and exposed often go hand in hand, that is not the case with him. He only broke his duck over fences on his eleventh attempt, but there was nothing soft about his follow-up win in the Kerry National, where he beat subsequent Cheltenham Festival winner Three Card Brag.

Spanish Harlem and Resplendent Grey both fit another key trend: nine of the last twelve winners finished third or better on their previous start.

Unlike the others mentioned, Spanish Harlem is trained by a former winner of this race, Willie Mullins, a seventeen-time Irish Champion Trainer and two-time British Champion Trainer who won the 2017 running. His runners often need their first run of the season, but the Kerry National was sixty-six days ago, so that should not be an issue, although ten of the last twelve winners ran within fifty-seven days.

Panic Attack is likely to prove popular for the in-form Skelton team after her convincing win in the Gold Cup at Cheltenham. With nine chase starts she fits the experience profile, but it is worth noting that nine of the last twelve winners had at least four runs over three miles or further. She has four, but three of them were over hurdles, and she placed only once. For further context, eight of the last twelve winners had already won over three miles.

She is due to go up 7lb for that Cheltenham success but runs here under a 4lb penalty, so she is 3lb well in. At nine years old, however, she would be bidding to become only the second horse older than eight to win the race since Denman in 2009.

This looks a competitive renewal, but the ease of Spanish Harlem’s Kerry National win and the subsequent form of Three Card Brag make him very difficult to ignore. At current prices he appears a fair and potentially value proposition for Willie Mullins.

The analytical piece was prepared by Emmet Kennedy— Presenter, Producer, and Owner of The Final Furlong Podcast, Broadcaster with TalkSPORT, and Broadcast Consultant —  with the support of 1xBet Ireland.

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