Epsom Derby 2026 Betting Guide: Why Benvenuto Cellini Looks Built for Derby Glory
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In this 1xBet Ireland review, we break down the key contenders for one of the most prestigious races of the Derby Festival, combining stride data, pedigree analysis and pace projections. With Aidan O'Brien once again targeting Classic success, Benvenuto Cellini heads the market, while Maltese Cross and Ancient Egypt emerge as intriguing alternatives in Saturday’s Epsom Derby, previewed by the Final Furlong Podcast’s Emmet Kennedy.
Reading the Derby
There were plenty of people dismissing the strength of the 2,000 Guineas before the race. Afterwards, many of those same observers were hailing Bow Echo's victory as the best Guineas-winning performance since Frankel.
It's a familiar pattern. Before the race, the narrative is weakness. Afterwards, it's quality.
That is worth remembering ahead of Saturday's Derby, where the phrase "it's not a great renewal" has become fashionable once again.
There is no standout champion juvenile in the field and no proven Group 1 superstar. But that misses the point of the Derby.
Every year, a group of lightly raced, beautifully bred three-year-olds arrive at Epsom facing questions they have never encountered before. A mile and a half, Britain's most demanding racecourse and a Group 1 run at championship pace.
Timeform expects a strong gallop, which should ensure stamina, rather than tactical speed, becomes the decisive factor.
That is why stride and cadence data has become such a valuable tool.
Recent Derby winners such as City Of Troy, Auguste Rodin, Lambourn and Masar all possessed notably low cadence figures. They could relax, conserve energy and continue finding under pressure when others had cried enough.
This year's favourite, Benvenuto Cellini, possesses exactly that profile.
His maximum cadence of 2.21 and minimum cadence of 2.00 compare favourably with recent Derby winners. The Chester Vase merely confirmed what the data already suggested. He travelled strongly, settled beautifully and powered clear when the race began in earnest.
Simon Rowlands has highlighted his exceptional stride length, while Ellipse's analysis shows a horse operating at significantly lower stride frequencies than the population average.
Put simply, Benvenuto Cellini looks and moves like a Derby winner.
The concern is not stamina. It is the ground.
A horse whose superiority is built around a huge stride can become less effective if significant rain eases conditions. Epsom's camber and the potential for traffic problems also pose challenges. Even so, he remains the most likely winner and fully deserves favouritism with 1xBet Ireland.
Those worried about his lack of a Group 1 victory should remember that five of Aidan O'Brien's last seven Derby winners won their first Group 1 at Epsom. Lambourn, Serpentine, Anthony Van Dyck, Wings Of Eagles and Ruler Of The World all followed that path.
Benvenuto Cellini has the pedigree, trainer, ownership, trial form and data profile you want to see in a Derby favourite.
The Value Alternative
The horse who repeatedly catches the eye in the data is Maltese Cross.
His cadence figures of 2.33 and 2.03 are almost textbook Derby numbers, suggesting a colt capable of settling, conserving energy and staying every yard of the trip.
That profile becomes even more appealing given the strong pace forecast.
By Sea The Stars out of a Camelot mare, his pedigree screams Derby. He arrives seeking a fourth consecutive victory and has improved with every start.
The obvious question is whether he possesses the class of the favourite.
At the prices, however, that concern is already reflected in the market.
He looks one of the runners most likely to improve significantly for the step up to twelve furlongs and appeals as the standout value alternative.
The Forgotten Horse
Ancient Egypt is another outsider who interests me.
Unlike many bigger-priced runners, the data suggests the Derby trip will be a positive rather than a concern. His cadence figures of 2.28 and 2.14 compare favourably with several recent winners and are superior to those of a number of shorter-priced rivals.
By Frankel and out of a sister to Oaks runner-up and six-time Group 1 winner Midday, stamina should not be an issue.
The question is whether he possesses sufficient class. But that is true of most outsiders in a Derby.
What makes Ancient Egypt interesting is that the market appears to underestimate his chance of staying strongly through the final quarter-mile. If this becomes a true stamina test, he could be one of the horses finishing best of all, for a trainer who saddled last year's runner-up.
Verdict
Both the traditional formbook and the modern data point in the same direction.
Benvenuto Cellini possesses the strongest combination of form, pedigree, trainer profile and stride data in the race.
Maltese Cross appeals as the value play, while Ancient Egypt is the outsider capable of outrunning his odds.
Predicted Derby 1-2-3
🥇 Benvenuto Cellini
🥈 Maltese Cross
🥉 Ancient Egypt
Coolmore Coronation Cup Betting Guide: Can Jan Brueghel Defend His Crown at Epsom?
Calandagan brings world-class form to Epsom, but defending champion Jan Brueghel and improving Group performers Lambourn and Convergent ensure a fascinating tactical battle in the Coronation Cup.
A fascinating clash on paper, with the 1xBet Ireland traders, along with most other bookmakers, viewing this as a rematch between last year's first and second, Jan Brueghel and Calandagan. However, last year's Derby winner Lambourn and the progressive Convergent add further depth to what promises to be a fascinating tactical contest.
Those who questioned Calandagan's attitude after his defeat in this race last year were made to look foolish. He subsequently won five consecutive Group 1 races, was crowned Europe's highest-rated horse after his Champion Stakes success, and later became the world's top-rated horse with victory in the Japan Cup. He is a huge credit to Francis-Henri Graffard and, at a conventional racecourse, would be close to a certainty.
There is no doubt Calandagan is a better horse than he was 12 months ago, but Epsom is a very different track to Saint-Cloud, Ascot, Tokyo and Meydan, the four tracks where he has won at Group 1 level over 12f. If he handles the track, the race is very much his to lose. Yet the tactical nature of a small field and the possibility of softer ground introduce further complications.
Those factors could play into the hands of last year's Derby winner Lambourn, who is likely to attempt to dominate from the front, just as he did when winning the Derby over this course and distance. It was pleasing to see him return to winning ways at Chester on his four-year-old debut. While he was favoured by the weights that day, receiving 5lb from Bay City Roller, the form has received a useful boost since, with Bay City Roller finishing second in the Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh. Lambourn should improve for that reappearance and is a major player.
Karl Burke's Convergent also commands respect. He was sent off the 3/5 favourite for the German Group 1 won by Bay City Roller last November, but Burke has since admitted the colt looked a shadow of himself in the paddock that day and probably should not have run.
Prior to that, his progression had been impressive. He finished third behind Lambourn in the Chester Vase and was arguably unlucky not to win the German Derby before making no mistake in a Leopardstown Group 3 on Irish Champions Weekend. He followed up with a Group 2 success at Longchamp, beating Bay City Roller by 3L, while Yellow Jersey and Dubai Honour filled the places. Dubai Honour has since finished second in an Australian Group 1. Convergent recorded a career-best Timeform adjusted rating of 131+ for that performance.
All eight of his starts have come on relatively flat tracks, so Epsom remains an unknown. However, if he handles the undulations, he possesses the class to be very competitive. He returned with a victory in the John Porter Stakes at Newbury despite a significant market drift, matching the best Racing Post Rating and Timeform figure of his career.
I was very close to making him the selection, having backed him ante-post at both 10/1 and 6/1. But, this race looks like it will set up beautifully for defending champion Jan Brueghel.
He was given a magnificent ride by Ryan Moore when winning this race 12 months ago and produced a performance full of class and stamina. Calandagan comfortably reversed that form in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes, but the first-time cheekpieces and an ineffective pacemaker appeared to backfire on Jan Brueghel that day.
There is no doubt Calandagan is better suited by Ascot. He has won three of his four starts there and was arguably unlucky not to win the 2024 Champion Stakes as well. However, we know Epsom suits Jan Brueghel perfectly.
Ryan Moore is widely regarded as the finest big-race jockey in the world and his record over middle distances at Epsom is extraordinary. His victories aboard Luxembourg and Jan Brueghel in the last two runnings of this race, combined with two Derby wins and four Oaks victories in the last decade, underline that fact.
Still lightly raced with only eight starts, Jan Brueghel is already a dual Group 1 winner, having captured the St Leger and this race last season. He was backed as though defeat was out of the question on his seasonal return at Chester, eventually starting at 4/7 after being odds-against the previous evening.
Improvement should be expected from that run. He is the second-highest-rated horse in the field on both Racing Post Ratings and Timeform adjusted figures, while also possessing one of the strongest speed ratings in the race.
Described by his trainer Aidan O’Brien as “a hardy customer”, it is difficult to see him finishing outside the first two. With Moore in the saddle and conditions likely to place an emphasis on stamina, he could once again show why Epsom brings out the very best in him.
Suggested Bet
Jan Brueghel
As the Derby Festival unfolds, staying on top of key trends, form insights and race-day developments can make all the difference. Follow the action and explore the full range of markets with 1xBet Ireland horse racing.
The analytical piece was prepared by Emmet Kennedy — Presenter, Producer, and Owner of The Final Furlong Podcast, Broadcaster with TalkSPORT, and Broadcast Consultant — with the support of 1xBet Ireland.
1XBET AND TERMINUS PLATFORM IRELAND LIMITED DO NOT SPONSOR ANY OF THE EVENTS ABOVE AND HAVE NO PARTNERSHIP WITH ASSOCIATED SPORTS LEGUES AND/OR ASSOCIATIONS.
