Eclipse Stakes Betting Tips: Can Constitution River Continue Aidan O'Brien's Group 1 Domination?
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In this 1xBet Ireland article, Emmet Kennedy assesses Aidan O'Brien's chances of a fourth consecutive Eclipse victory with French Derby hero Constitution River and examines why Britain's first all-aged middle-distance Group 1 continues to attract increasingly small fields.
Following Royal Ascot, the spotlight shifts to Sandown for Britain's first all-aged middle-distance Group 1 of the season, the Eclipse Stakes. Once again, however, the talking point is not just the quality of the field but its size.
A maximum of seven runners will line up for Saturday's Group 1 Eclipse. There has not been a double-figure field since Sea The Stars defeated Rip Van Winkle in a field of 10 in 2009. This will be the 12th Eclipse since then with seven or fewer runners, and the seventh consecutive renewal to attract no more than seven.
Some have suggested moving the race later in the summer, but that misses the point entirely.
Aside from the fact the European Pattern Committee would be unlikely to entertain such a move, it would simply create clashes elsewhere. Ascot would have every reason to object if it weakened the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes, while York and Leopardstown would hardly welcome the Eclipse being pushed closer to the Juddmonte International or Irish Champion Stakes.
The better question is this: who is actually missing?
Ombudsman, Minnie Hauk, Daryz and Almaqam all ran in the Prince of Wales's Stakes. Opera Ballo contested the Queen Anne, while Bow Echo and Gstaad fought out the St James's Palace Stakes and now look set for the Sussex Stakes. Tornado Alert has not been seen since winning a German Group 1 last season. Purview ran in Ireland last weekend. Precise and Diamond Necklace have fillies-only Group 1 targets, while Calandagan heads back to the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud, a race he won 12 months ago.
The reality is British and Irish racing simply lacks the depth of elite middle-distance horses it once enjoyed. Promising maiden and novice winners are increasingly sold to Hong Kong, Australia and the Middle East before reaching their peak, while commercial breeders continue to favour speed over stamina.
Changing the date of the Eclipse will not solve that problem. It would simply reshuffle the same small pool of horses around the calendar.
Constitution River
The Eclipse provides the first opportunity for the Classic generation to meet their elders, and this year's renewal features arguably the most exciting three-year-old middle-distance colt in Europe, Constitution River.
Aidan O'Brien has won four of the last five runnings, all with three-year-olds: St Mark's Basilica, Paddington, City Of Troy and Delacroix. Constitution River now bids to become his fourth consecutive winner, fifth in six years and tenth overall in the race.
O'Brien has already trained 11 Group 1 winners this season and is once again threatening his own world record of 28 Group or Grade 1 victories in a calendar year, set in 2017. Having saddled 26 top-level winners last season, victories in the Eclipse and Sunday's German Derby and Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud would take him even closer.
Constitution River was not always certain to run after O'Brien suggested a few weeks ago that he might be kept for autumn targets. That would have been understandable, given he has raced only five times.
His only defeat came on debut behind Distant Storm, who has since placed in three Group 1 races. He announced himself by winning a Group 2 with ease on just his third start before bolting up in the Dee Stakes at Chester, establishing himself as a major Derby prospect.
Instead, connections opted for the Prix du Jockey Club, a shrewd piece of placing as the French-bred colt qualified for lucrative owners' premiums that pushed the total prize beyond €1 million.
He justified that decision despite overcoming a wide draw to become the first horse in more than a decade to win the French Derby from a double-figure stall, leading home an Aidan O'Brien one-two-three. Stablemate Hawk Mountain reopposes here, but if Constitution River runs to his true level he may again be playing for minor honours.
Although his Chantilly success was more workmanlike than his Chester demolition, there were valid reasons for that. The wide draw forced him to expend energy early and he still found enough to win convincingly.
His Chester performance remains the standout piece of form. He beat subsequent Royal Ascot Group 3 winner Generic by seven lengths, with subsequent Listed winner Golden Story nine lengths behind and German 2,000 Guineas runner-up Shayem almost ten lengths adrift. He also set a new course record and recorded an RPR nine pounds higher than any previous Dee Stakes winner in the last decade.
Receiving 10lb from his older rivals, he will take plenty of beating if reproducing either of those performances.
The Main Danger
The obvious alternative is Gethin.
He briefly headed the market after Ombudsman's withdrawal and while Constitution River's participation remained uncertain.
Owen Burrows has always held him in high regard and he confirmed that promise when pushing Ombudsman close in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes over this course and distance, albeit receiving 7lb.
That form has worked out exceptionally well, with Ombudsman successfully defending his Prince of Wales's Stakes crown at Royal Ascot.
Like Constitution River, Gethin remains lightly raced, having had only six starts. By Ghaiyyath, whose stock tend to improve with maturity, he should still have more to offer. His sire won this race as a five-year-old and another career-best effort looks likely.
Whether that will be enough to concede 10lb to an outstanding three-year-old is another matter.
Verdict
With only seven runners, each-way betting holds little appeal. Had there been an eighth, Saddadd would have been interesting after producing a career-best effort last time out and given he is unbeaten in two starts at Sandown.
Ultimately, this looks a straightforward race.
If Constitution River reproduces either his Dee Stakes or French Derby form, the rest may simply be running for second. Given the current form of the Ballydoyle team, an O'Brien one-two headed by Constitution River and Hawk Mountain would come as no surprise.
Selection: Constitution River
Best Bet: Constitution River at 11/10 with 1xBet.
Don't miss the start of the Eclipse Stakes at Sandown Park racecourse and support your favourite with 1xBet horse racing.
The analytical piece was prepared by Emmet Kennedy — Presenter, Producer, and Owner of The Final Furlong Podcast, Broadcaster with TalkSPORT, and Broadcast Consultant — with the support of 1xBet Ireland.
1XBET AND TERMINUS PLATFORM IRELAND LIMITED DO NOT SPONSOR ANY OF THE EVENTS ABOVE AND HAVE NO PARTNERSHIP WITH ASSOCIATED SPORTS LEGUES AND/OR ASSOCIATIONS.
