Cheltenham 2026: Will Sober Glory Outsmart the Favourites?
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In this 1xBet horse racing review, we will conduct the Supreme and Turners Novice Hurdles analysis as we hunt early prices and smart betting angles
The last few weekends have been compelling viewing for jumps racing fans, with the road to the Cheltenham Festival gathering serious momentum.
Trials Day at Cheltenham, the Dublin Racing Festival, and competitive cards at Newbury, Warwick and across Ireland have thrown up a host of potential Grade 1 performers. Every race now feels like a clue.
A week ago, you might have said the Dublin Racing Festival cleared up the ante-post picture.
Instead, one could argue it has done the opposite.
Browse the Cheltenham Festival betting markets with 1xBet and you’ll notice something unusual: there isn’t a single odds-on favourite.
That’s remarkable.
Last season, day one alone featured four odds-on shots, Kopek Des Bordes, Majborough, Lossiemouth, and Constitution Hill, and only two obliged. Cheltenham was edging towards predictability.
This year? It looks wide open, competitive and far more interesting from a betting perspective.
Which means value exists.
Supreme Novices’ Hurdle: favourite strong, but is there upside elsewhere?
My first instinct was to side with the Leopardstown form, specifically Talk The Talk, trained by Joseph O’Brien.
He travels strongly, has a sharp turn of foot and would likely have landed the Grade 1 at Christmas but for a stumble at the last. There’s still improvement to come.
However, the numbers temper enthusiasm.
His adjusted figures sit:
7lb behind the favourite on Timeform;
5lb behind on Racing Post Ratings.
On the plus side, his DRF form looks strong. The third, King Rasko Grey is a horse we rate on the Final Furlong Podcast, and the Royal Bond Novice Hurdle at Fairyhouse has already produced substance, with its first and second finishing fourth and fifth at Leopardstown. However, is 4/1 is probably about right, and there’s limited upside in backing him now.
The horse he has to beat is clearly Old Park Star, now with Nicky Henderson.
Unbeaten in three hurdle starts for the yard, his wide-margin wins at Cheltenham and Haydock were described on the Final Furlong Podcast by my friend and colleague Adam Mills as “Constitution Hill-esque”. Henderson has won three of the last ten runnings of this race and the profile screams class.
He has the potential go off a strong favourite, and I wouldn’t put anyone off taking the 15/8 with 1xBet now. However, taking short ante-post odds without knowing the final field or the ground feels unnecessary.
The ante-post angle: Sober Glory at a price
The smarter approach is backing a horse who:
Is definitely aimed at the race.
Could shorten significantly on the day.
Is underestimated now.
That’s long been the mantra of professional bettor and Final Furlong Podcast regular, Gavin Lynch. One horse who fits perfectly is Sober Glory, trained by Philip Hobbs and Johnson White.
His profile is hugely appealing:
6 wins from 7 starts;
Listed bumper winner;
Novice hurdle wins by 12L, 13L and 27L;
Age six, which fits the key trend (16 of the last 17 winners were 5 or 6).
Yes, he was well beaten at Sandown by Hurricane Pat, but nothing obvious came to light and Sandown simply may not suit. The rest of the data makes you sit up.
Ratings comparison with Old Park Star
RPRs
Old Park Star: 126, 144, 152
Sober Glory: 130, 139, 148
Adjusted Timeform
Old Park Star: 137+, 155+, 169+
Sober Glory: 137+, 144+, 151+
On Timeform he has ground to make up.
But on RPRs he’s only 4lb behind, and on Top Speed he’s actually clear top-rated.
Add Harry Cobden in the saddle and the visual impression of those wide-margin wins, and suddenly 12/1 looks big.
If he lines up, those odds almost certainly contract.
From an ante-post betting strategy, he’s exactly the type you want on side.
Turners Novices’ Hurdle: take on the favourite?
No Drama This End heads the market for the Turners, and the ability is obvious.
Unbeaten in three graded hurdle starts and compared to Denman by Paul Nicholls, he looks the real deal. His Challow Hurdle win fits the traditional prep.
But history isn’t kind to short-priced Challow winners at Cheltenham. The race often comes too early in the season, and Newbury winter form doesn’t always translate to March.
My instinct is to oppose at the price.
Ballyfad: strong profile, but price matters
The most interesting alternative is Gordon Elliott’s Ballyfad.
The deeper you go into his profile, the more appealing he becomes.
Initially aimed at the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, Elliott has since suggested the Turners Novices' Hurdle could be the better option. That looks logical.
The Supreme is tactical and speed-based.
The Turners is more of a stamina test.
Everything about Ballyfad suggests further will suit.
His foundation is solid:
unbeaten in two bumpers;
rallied to win under a penalty at Punchestown;
strong attitude under pressure.
Over hurdles, he immediately stepped forward, beating the highly regarded Leader d’Allier by nine and a half lengths, with that rival winning since to frank the form.
The pedigree screams stamina too. By Tirwanako, sire of an Albert Bartlett winner, out of a Brian Boru mare, plus a point-to-point success. He shapes like a proper 2m4f+ horse.
Ratings say he belongs:
Timeform 158p
3lb behind Doctor Steinberg.
2lb clear of the favourite.
RPRs
5lb to find.
The Top Speed figure is modest, but his races have been tactical rather than run at full tilt, so that likely underestimates him. There’s plenty to like. But there is one notable negative. Age.
18 of the last 26 winners of the Turners were aged six
Five-year-olds have struggled. Only Impaire Et Passe, now a five-time Grade 1 winner, has bucked the trend recently. The other five-year-old winners this century — No Refuge, Nicanor, Mikael D’Haguenet, Peddlers Cross and The New One — were all genuinely top-class animals.
So if Ballyfad is to defy the stat, he almost has to be in that bracket.
He might be. But it’s still a trend worth respecting. And this is where betting discipline comes in. I like the horse. He’s very high on my shortlist. But at 7/1 ante-post, his odds feel about right rather than generous.
Personally, I’d rather take 5/1 on the day, knowing:
he’s definitely running;
conditions suit;
the field is confirmed;
and that Jack Kennedy is in the saddle.
That certainty is often worth more than grabbing a couple of points early. So he’s one to monitor rather than rush into.
Final thoughts
This year’s Festival markets feel wide open, which makes price discipline more important than ever.
Best ante-post bet now
Sober Glory at 12/1 with 1xBet Ireland.
One to follow
Ballyfad, but wait for raceday value.
Discipline now could pay dividends in March.
We’ll dig deeper into both races and plenty more Cheltenham angles here on these pages and on The Final Furlong Podcast as we build towards the Greatest Show on Turf.
If you’re playing early, keep checking the latest Cheltenham Festival odds with 1xBet.
An analysis of the main favourites’ statistics and form will help you prepare for the start of this major event. You can follow the key 1xBet horse racing on a convenient platform that provides all the tools you need to make informed decisions and play responsibly.
The analytical piece was prepared by Emmet Kennedy — Presenter, Producer, and Owner of The Final Furlong Podcast, Broadcaster with TalkSPORT, and Broadcast Consultant — with the support of 1xBet Ireland.
1XBET AND TERMINUS PLATFORM IRELAND LIMITED DO NOT SPONSOR ANY OF THE EVENTS ABOVE AND HAVE NO PARTNERSHIP WITH ASSOCIATED SPORTS LEAGUES AND/OR ASSOCIATIONS.
