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In this 1xBet Ireland review, we will analyse one of the most prestigious events of the upcoming Cheltenham Festival. Based on statistical analysis and the current form of the participants, we will identify the key favourites for the race, as well as examine the betting lines to select the most interesting markets with the most attractive odds.

The big headline first: Nicky Henderson has ruled Constitution Hill out of the Champion Hurdle. That’s disappointing for those of us who were excited to see his potential redemption arc at Cheltenham, and his quest to become only the third horse in history to regain his Champion Hurdle crown, at the same age Hurricane Fly was when he achieved that goal. But it also removes the most polarising element from the betting.

Even allowing for that sensational 1m4f all-weather win at Southwell for a nine-year-old National Hunt horse, his ability to hurdle had become the question, not his talent. With three falls in his last four hurdle starts, and the one completion ending in a Punchestown blowout, there was no longer any margin for error. He is a non-runner now, so we’ll focus on the horses who will run.

Still, while I understand why connections have ruled him out, it feels like arguably the most exciting jumps horse in training has had his National Hunt career ended. That is undeniably disappointing, even if the excitement surrounding what he could achieve pitched against Aidan O’Brien and John Gosden-trained Flat horses remains hugely enticing.

What we’re left with is a Champion Hurdle that looks likely to be run at proper championship pace, and that matters because Cheltenham’s hill punishes empty speed and rewards efficient jumping under pressure. With that in mind, here’s the runner-by-runner breakdown using the figures you’d expect to lean on: Timeform adjusted ratings, Racing Post Ratings, Top Speed, and RaceiQ/Total Performance Data markers around jumping efficiency and finishing speed.

Key trends that matter this year

A trends list is only useful if you apply it like a filter, not a fortune-teller. The standouts:

• Age sweet spot: 6–7 has been the prime zone (and 5yos are historically poison in this).

• Recent form: most winners won last time out.

• Connections: Henderson/Mullins have dominated this race in modern times, but that doesn’t mean others can’t win. It does mean you should demand a proper Grade 1 profile from the alternatives.

• International/Unibet Hurdle angle: historically a poor springboard to Champion Hurdle glory (worth noting with one prominent contender).

The runners

THE NEW LION (Dan Skelton) – 2/1

Ratings: Timeform Adj 172p | RPR Adj 163 | TS Adj 149
Likely chance: ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ (4.0/5)

If you’re building a Champion Hurdle winner in a lab, you start with a high cruising speed, the ability to quicken off pace, and jumping that gains you ground rather than simply survives. The New Lion is close to that template.

His Cheltenham Grade 1 win in the Turners came with the kind of sectional signature you want: a proper late surge (Finishing Speed 105.22%) and top-end speed (36.53mph), and he did it despite needing to switch and organise himself late. At Newbury in the Challow he posted elite jump-efficiency metrics: Jump Index 8.6/10, +9.20 lengths gained jumping, and a 100% positive jump rate, then finished like the best horse.

The concern is straightforward, and it’s one you always have to respect in a Champion Hurdle: Newcastle, Fighting Fifth, fell at 2 out when moving like the winner. The follow-up at Cheltenham in the International (Unibet) Hurdle was essentially a sprint up the hill in a four-runner race. He does have to overcome a major negative stat, International Hurdle winners are 0-14 in the Champion Hurdle that same season for the past 22 years. But, he’s already a trends buster, becoming the first horse in 20 attempts to win the Challow Hurdle and at Cheltenham in the same season, and in January he did what Skelton wanted: got a clear round and showed a gear.

Verdict: the most complete profile in the field. If he jumps cleanly at championship tempo, he’s the one they all have to beat.

LOSSIEMOUTH (Willie Mullins) – 11/4

Ratings: Timeform Adj 176 | RPR Adj 171 | TS Adj 162
Likely chance: ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ (4.0/5)

On raw ability, she is the standout: best-in-race Timeform adjusted figure (176) and a modern, athletic turn of foot that shows up in the data. Her wins at Cheltenham (Mares’ Hurdle) and Aintree (Aintree Hurdle) weren’t just “she won nicely” jobs. They were power finishes: 110%+ finishing speed in both, and crucially she can travel, quicken, and then go again.

The fly in the ointment is that her Irish Champion Hurdle run on heavy showed a less persuasive Champion Hurdle pattern: she threatened briefly, then couldn’t land a blow, and the RaceiQ jumping readout was a bit untidy there.

Verdict: if you think this is run on a sounder surface and she jumps like she did at Cheltenham/Aintree, she’s a major winning danger. If it turns into a slog, she’s a little easier to oppose at the price.

BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD (Gordon Elliott) – 5/2

Ratings: Timeform Adj 175 | RPR Adj 173 | TS Adj 166
Likely chance: ⭐⭐⭐☆☆ (3.0/5)

She brings serious numbers, and her Leopardstown Grade 1s show she can boss a race with speed and authority. On paper, she absolutely belongs.

But Cheltenham has been the sticking point. Two pieces of context matter:

1. Last year’s Champion Hurdle: she suffered interference after the final hurdle, but she was already beaten at that point. That run also made it her second consecutive Cheltenham Festival defeat, and both Festival losses came at the hands of Golden Ace.

2. The visual and the data line up: in that Champion Hurdle she hit a wall late (Finishing Speed 91.45%), and Elliott’s post-race comments suggested she never picked up and may not have been right.

If she turns up in her Leopardstown form, she’s a threat. If she runs like her Cheltenham self, she’s vulnerable again in the last 100 yards.

Verdict: classy, but at 5/2 you’re paying for the best version, and Cheltenham has not been her friend.

GOLDEN ACE (Jeremy Scott) – 11/2

Ratings: Timeform Adj 166 | RPR Adj 165 | TS Adj 150
Likely chance: ⭐⭐⭐☆☆ (3.0/5)
Value angle: 💰⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ (4.0/5)

What is a horse’s true chance of winning versus their price? Golden Ace keeps answering the same question: she finishes better than most of these when the race gets messy late.

She won the 2025 Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham at a monster price, and while the result was shaped by two key players falling and another blowing out, her profile wasn’t a fluke. She has repeatedly shown she can stay on hard up the hill. Her RaceiQ in that Champion Hurdle win: +4.81 lengths gained jumping (best in race) and the best finishing-speed rating in the field. At Punchestown she was second with a strong late rally again.

And if you want the most relevant nugget of all for this renewal: she has beaten Brighterdaysahead twice at the Cheltenham Festival.

Verdict: she’s not the sexy pick, but at 11/2 she’s the bet that keeps you honest. If the front end overcooks it, she’s exactly the type who clatters into the frame and can win again.

BALLYBURN (Willie Mullins) – 14/1

Ratings: Timeform Adj 169 | RPR Adj 168 | TS Adj 134
Likely chance: ⭐⭐☆☆☆ (2.0/5)

A proper Grade 1 operator with a deep tank. But the Champion Hurdle asks for something very specific: two-mile speed under pressure. Much of Ballyburn’s best work has come over 2m4f–2m5f, where that late efficiency is a weapon.

He was excellent at Cheltenham on heavy (Turners Novices’ Hurdle) with a big figure, and he nearly pinched Hatton’s Grace against Teahupoo with a late surge. The problem is this: at two miles, against speedier types, he risks being outpaced when it matters.

Hardy Eustace was sent off a 40/1 shot before winning the first of his two Champion Hurdles. Horses with class and stamina have won this race before, and there is no question about Ballyburn’s class. But Willie Mullins has specifically mentioned in a recent stable tour that Ballyburn doesn’t have speed in his pedigree. If he is allowed to make the running, he could be hard to peg back.

That said, having been made favourite for the Stayers’ Hurdle off the back of his defeat to Teahupoo, and not seen since Gordon Elliott’s classy horse trashed him over 3m at Leopardstown, he needs to bounce back in a spectacular way. It’s not impossible, and I’ll consider him again as we get closer to the race.

Verdict: I’d rather take 8/1 on the day knowing he’s Paul Townend’s mount, but at 14/1 non-runner no bet, he is certainly one to consider.

PONIROS (Willie Mullins) – 10/1

Ratings: Timeform Adj 160 | RPR Adj 160 | TS Adj 148
Likely chance: ⭐⭐☆☆☆ (2.0/5)

The Triumph Hurdle win was a properly dramatic closer: fastest finishing speed in the race and a blistering late run. But the RaceiQ jumping data there was the warning label: low Jump Index, negative lengths gained jumping, and significant speed lost at the hurdles. At Punchestown he again shaped like a horse with class, but the mistakes crept in when pressure rose.

Verdict: talented, but to win a Champion Hurdle you generally need your jumping to be a weapon, not a negotiation. He’s more one for American-style “exotics” bets than a win bet for me.

ANZADAM (Willie Mullins) – 16/1

Ratings (from your supplied races): Timeform Adj 160+ range, with high RPRs and excellent jumping metrics
Likely chance: ⭐⭐☆☆☆ (2.0/5)

Essentially a substitute for his owners’ high-profile contenders Sir Gino and State Man, both of whom would be hard to beat had they made the race. He’s the type I like backing at a price when the market is lazy because the data is loud: elite Jump Index numbers, strong lengths gained jumping, and good finishing-speed percentages. At Naas on heavy he jumped like a machine (Jump Index 8.8, +3.89L gained jumping, fastest recovery), and at Newcastle he posted a top speed that says he belongs in this company.

But his last two Grade 1 tests have exposed that he can look like a winner turning in and then not quite finish the job at this level.

Verdict: he has the talent to outrun 16/1, but you might be better off backing him win-only. You’re still asking him to find a gear he hasn’t consistently shown, and his profile is that of a horse who will either win or disappoint. Perhaps a big-field County Hurdle would bring out the best in him, and his connections have given him an entry. Intriguing if he lines up, but Townend would be crucial to his chances, in my opinion.

ALEXEI (Joe Tizzard) – 14/1

Ratings: Timeform Adj 139–162+ range across key runs | big jumping gains in handicaps
Likely chance: ⭐⭐☆☆☆ (2.0/5)

If you want a horse who can gain lengths in the air and travel like a serious animal, Alexei is your guy. The Greatwood win at Cheltenham screamed “graded horse hiding in a handicap”: +7.93 lengths gained jumping (best in field), strong finishing speed, and a proper late takeover. He backed it up with a Grade 2 win where the closing fractions were excellent.

The question is obvious: can he reproduce those efficiency edges against true Grade 1 operators who don’t stop?

Verdict: he’s a fun price, and he’ll give you a run for your money if he gets into rhythm. But he’s more “top 3” than “most likely winner”.

The others on the card (ratings overview)

These runners are in the field list, but you haven’t supplied 1xBet odds or deeper performance notes for them here, so I’m restricting this to what’s visible on the card snapshot:

• Cashelleda Lad (OR 152) — figures suggest a useful Grade performer, but he likely needs others to underperform.

• Lucky Place (OR 151) — similar story: hard to make a win case versus the top of this market.

• Wilful (OR 144) — looks up against it on ratings.

• Workahead (OR 145) — needs a major step forward at this level.

Final call: who wins and where’s the value?

Most likely winner: THE NEW LION ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ (4/5)

He has the best “Champion Hurdle skill set” blend in the field: speed, a finishing kick, and the ability to gain ground through his hurdles when he’s doing it right.

That said, he was only third favourite for the Turners Novice Hurdle last season. The visual impression of his Challow and Turners Novice Hurdle wins will live long in the memory, and he has the right age profile for the race. With only six hurdle starts under his belt, he remains unexposed, and in an open year he has a huge opportunity to live up to the potential his trainer and owner believe he is capable of.

I suspect you’ll get similar odds on the day, but if you feel the need to have a bet now, she has already proven she can handle Cheltenham, handle the hill, and handle Brighterdaysahead in a Festival finish. At 11/2, you’re buying a profile that repeatedly outruns market respect.

Others to consider: Anzadam has the raw ability, but there are questions about his ability to put it all together. Jockey booking will be critical to his chance, as it will be for Ballyburn. Like The New Lion, Ballyburn won what is now the Turners Novice Hurdle and he is a classy horse. If chosen by Townend, he could run a huge race in an open Champion Hurdle.

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The analytical piece was prepared by Emmet Kennedy — Presenter, Producer, and Owner of The Final Furlong Podcast, Broadcaster with TalkSPORT, and Broadcast Consultant —  with the support of 1xBet Ireland.

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