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In this 1xBet Ireland review, we explore the key trends, ratings, and betting angles for four major races at one of the season’s most prestigious events. Cheltenham Festival handicaps and Grade 1 contests often reward punters who combine strong form study with historical trends. Here is a race-by-race look at four of the key contests on the card, including the Triumph Hurdle, County Handicap Hurdle, Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle and the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

1:20 Cheltenham – JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m1f

Minella Study is unbeaten in two hurdle starts and looked an improving prospect when winning over course and distance, pulling more than six lengths clear of subsequent Fred Winter runner-up Winston Junior.

He arrives here as the highest-rated runner on Timeform, Racing Post Ratings and official ratings, and also holds the Proform Racing Silver Speed Figure.

However, there is a notable statistical concern. Only two of the last 16 winners did not contest a Graded race on their previous start, which puts him slightly against the main trend.

There are historical precedents. Adagio won the same race before finishing second in the Triumph, although he had already won a Grade 1 beforehand. Defi Du Seuil also won that prep race before landing the Triumph, but again had captured both a Grade 1 and Grade 2 in the meantime.

Selma De Vary – strong Mullins profile

Willie Mullins has won five of the last six runnings of this race, including two with fillies, and his Zarak filly Selma De Vary arrives with a very interesting profile.

A wide-margin winner over hurdles in France, she ran five times there, including three hurdle starts, and therefore brings experience of competitive fields.

She could improve significantly for her second start for Willie Mullins, having finished runner-up in a Grade 1 at Leopardstown behind stablemate Narciso Has, who had been the even-money favourite for this race before injury ruled him out of Cheltenham.

Several key trends support her claims:

• 9 of the last 14 Triumph winners contested the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown

• 9 of the last 17 winners were either top-rated or second-top on official BHA ratings (Selma De Vary is second-top)

• 8 of the last 11 winners began their careers in France

Selma De Vary fits each of these angles, and confidence is increased by Paul Townend choosing to ride her.

Macho Man – Mullins outsider to note

Macho Man has received positive reports from the yard and does not have much to find with stablemate and ante-post favourite Proactif.

He appears to be lower in the pecking order based on jockey bookings, but Brian Hayes is a talented rider and Mullins produced a shock winner in this race last year.

His lack of graded experience is a slight concern. However, considering last year’s winner had never jumped a hurdle in public, it would be no surprise to see him run well.

2:00 Cheltenham – William Hill County Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) – 2m1f

At the time of writing, Nicky Henderson has already trained three winners at the Cheltenham Festival this week, including Wednesday’s big handicap hurdle.

Despite saddling 35 runners in this race since 2000, he has yet to win it, but Joyeuse is an intriguing contender.

She finished second to Wodhooh in a handicap on the New Course at Cheltenham last season before winning a valuable 2m½f handicap at Newbury in impressive style.

She failed to stay when tackling Grade 1 company behind Lossiemouth in the Mares’ Hurdle, and a brief chasing campaign was abandoned after two starts.

Her latest run suggested she retains plenty of ability. She was travelling strongly and challenging at the final flight before a mistake and stumble cost her valuable momentum.

Henderson told me on the Final Furlong Podcast that he believed she would likely have won had she cleared the final hurdle.

She now runs from a mark of 135, just 12lb higher than her last victory, and with only eight hurdle starts she remains relatively unexposed.

Her pedigree also offers encouragement: her dam is a half-sister to Champion Hurdle winner Epatante, also trained by Henderson.

The addition of first-time cheekpieces and the booking of Nico de Boinville suggest connections expect a strong performance. She makes plenty of appeal at a double figure price. 

Karbau – Townend’s only handicap ride

Paul Townend has ridden three of the last four winners of this race and four winners in the last ten renewals, including Arctic Fire, who famously carried 11st 12lb to victory.

Willie Mullins and Townend now seek a third consecutive win with Karbau.

Notably, this is Townend’s only handicap ride of the week, as he typically avoids the risk of big-field handicaps. Given his excellent record in the race, his decision to ride this Cokoriko gelding is significant.

Cokoriko is also enjoying a strong week, having already sired Grade 1 winner Kitzbuhel.

Karbau is rated 150 and carries 11st 8lb, which will not be easy, but, as previously discussed, horses have won this race carrying big weights before.

A two-time Grade 1 placed novice hurdler last season, he shaped well on his reappearance when finishing second in the Limestone Lad Hurdle behind the race-fit Glen Kiln.

Sent off a well-backed favourite that day, he is entitled to improve for both the run and his handicap debut.

Key trends also support him:

• 15 of the last 20 winners were rated in the 130s

• 8 of the last 16 winners were trained by Willie Mullins

• 20 of the last 25 winners were novices or second-season hurdlers

• 20 of the last 27 winners were aged five or six

He fits many of the key historical patterns and should go close if running his race.

3:20 Cheltenham – Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) – 3m

Doctor Steinberg is sure to attract strong support following his Grade 1 success at the Dublin Racing Festival, and Willie Mullins and Paul Townend combined to win this race last year.

However, punters should note the average starting price of the last ten winners exceeds 20/1, highlighting the race’s unpredictability.

I made a detailed case for Dan Skelton’s Moneygarrow in the previous 1xBet Cheltenham preview.

He was 33/1 at the time and is now trading around 16/1, which suggests others have begun to notice his profile.

Hopefully he runs a big race for us.

4:00 Cheltenham – Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1) – 3m2½f

It could yet prove a memorable day for Willie Mullins and Paul Townend, who attempt to land a fifth Gold Cup together in eight years with a third different horse.

Gaelic Warrior shares the highest official rating in the race with defending champion Inothewayurthinkin, who has looked a shadow of last season’s form in three runs this campaign.

Although reports suggest the reigning champion has been working well at home, he may struggle to hold off the Mullins runner.

Gaelic Warrior remains relatively unexposed over three miles, winning two of his four starts at the trip.

He ran better than the bare result when third in the King George VI Chase behind The Jukebox Man, and also performed well when finishing second to Fact To File in the Irish Gold Cup, despite struggling to settle.

With Paul Townend now back in the saddle, he brings proven stamina to the table after winning the Aintree Bowl over 3m1f, defeating subsequent Grade 1 winner Grey Dawning.

His Cheltenham Festival record reads 2-2-1, which further enhances his credentials.

With Haiti Couleurs likely to force a strong pace, Gaelic Warrior’s powerful finishing style, combined with his class and stamina, should make him extremely difficult to beat if he runs to his best.

Statistics provided by the Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide. 

Stay at the heart of the biggest storylines in 1xBet horse racing and root for your favourite. Analysing the stats will help you identify the markets with the most attractive odds. Play responsibly and add extra excitement to watching the most spectacular races of the Cheltenham Festival.

The analytical piece was prepared by Emmet Kennedy — Presenter, Producer, and Owner of The Final Furlong Podcast, Broadcaster with TalkSPORT, and Broadcast Consultant —  with the support of 1xBet Ireland.

1XBET AND TERMINUS PLATFORM IRELAND LIMITED DO NOT SPONSOR ANY OF THE EVENTS ABOVE AND HAVE NO PARTNERSHIP WITH ASSOCIATED SPORTS LEAGUES AND/OR ASSOCIATIONS.