Ascot Chase & Kingwell Hurdle: Key Betting Insights Ahead of Cheltenham
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In this 1xBet review, we examine course form, historical stats, and the key contenders analysed for two crucial National Hunt trials.
Two of the most informative mid-winter National Hunt races take centre stage this weekend, with the Ascot Chase and the Kingwell Hurdle offering strong clues ahead of the Cheltenham Festival.
Both contests have long histories of producing top-class winners and, just as importantly for punters, both tend to follow clear trends and profiles.
Spotting those patterns often proves the difference between backing the obvious and backing the right one.
Ascot Chase (Grade 1, 2m5f)
First run in 1995 and staged over 2m5f since 2008, the Ascot Chase has been won by some proper stars: Kauto Star, One Man and Monet's Garden among them.
Five horses have won it twice. None has managed three. Which brings us neatly to this year’s defending champion.
Pic d’Orhy – hat-trick bid but questions to answer
Pic d'Orhy has taken the last two renewals for Paul Nicholls, the most successful trainer in the race’s history with six wins, and is again partnered by Harry Cobden, a three-time winning rider.
Course form is a major positive:
5 wins from last 7 starts at Ascot;
10 of the last 12 winners had previously won here.
The market suggests this is essentially a three-runner race, with the rest 33/1 and bigger. That’s not unusual either — the last 12 winners have all come from the first three in the betting.
But there is a significant concern. Recent form.
Ten of the last 12 winners had already won that season. Pic d’Orhy hasn’t. His Charlie Hall reappearance was encouraging, yet his run in the 1965 Chase over this course and distance was disappointing. He was unable to control the pace and folded quickly once pressured.
If taken on for the lead again, he looks vulnerable. At short odds, that’s a risk.
Edwardstone – admirable but vulnerable on the numbers
Edwardstone did win earlier this season, landing the Silviniaco Conti after Kayf Du Berlais exited injured. However, the form is shaky.
Master Chewy, whom he beat, has struggled either side of that run. Edwardstone’s recent RPRs of 151 and 158 are respectable but still well short of his peak 171 from the 2022 Tingle Creek.
The trends are firmly against him:
11 of last 12 winners rated 161+ (he’s 152)
8 of last 12 aged 7–9 (he’s now 12)
Age and ratings both say he’s up against it.
Jonbon – conditions finally ideal
That leaves Jonbon. Away from Cheltenham, he’s been extremely reliable and Ascot clearly suits:
3 from 3 at the track;
Clarence House Chase winner here last time.
While Il Etait Temps failed to complete that day, Jonbon was travelling like the winner anyway and deserves full credit. The key angle is trip.
He’s two from two over 2m4f, both wins in the Melling Chase, posting RPRs of 170 and a career-best 173. That strongly suggests this intermediate distance is actually his optimum.
Yes, he’s now 10, which sits just outside the typical age range, but:
the “ideal age” horses are outsiders;
he’s still relatively unexposed at this trip.
Everything about the setup points his way.
Ascot Chase verdict
Solid course form. Ideal trip. Best recent ratings. Jonbon looks the percentage play, ahead of an ageing Edwardstone and an out-of-form Pic d’Orhy.
Kingwell Hurdle
First run in 1971, the Kingwell has long served as a Champion Hurdle trial.
Former winners include Bula, who famously did the double three times, alongside Lanzarote, Kribensis, Alderbrook, Katchit and last year’s Champion Hurdler Golden Ace.
Golden Ace – proven class, proven track
Golden Ace returns to defend her crown and has done little wrong this season.
Her second to Sir Gino in the Christmas Hurdle reads well, especially as she beat Rubaud comfortably, who re-opposes here.
Track form matters:
2 from 2 at Wincanton;
Rubaud struggled here previously.
The slight negative is age:
11 of last 12 winners were aged 5–7;
she’s now 8.
Still, on pure ability and suitability, she sets the standard.
Alexei – progressive but ratings gap
Alexei has improved rapidly this season, climbing 21lb after strong handicap efforts including a big Greatwood win.
He’s the right age and clearly progressive.
But:
first run at Wincanton;
rated 148;
8 of last 12 winners rated 150+;
last race form not fully franked.
He may still be a touch short at this level.
Potter’s Charm – profile doesn’t quite fit
Potter's Charm is interesting on ratings (154) and age (7), but the setup is questionable.
His best run came when dominating from the front at a track favouring that style. Now he drops back sharply to 2m having mostly raced over longer.
Historical trends are stark:
last 12 winners all had at least five runs over 15–17f;
most had multiple wins at the trip;
no Wincanton experience.
It’s a big tactical and stamina shift.
Kingwell verdict
On suitability for track, trip and weights:
Golden Ace looks the solid favourite, particularly with her allowance.
Alexei has upside but requires faith at the price.
Final betting thoughts
Two races. Two clear angles.
Ascot Chase
Jonbon.
Kingwell Hurdle
Golden Ace.
As always with National Hunt betting, price discipline matters. You can follow all the key 1xBet horse racing events and choose the most attractive betting markets on the brand’s convenient platform. It provides all the up-to-date statistics you need to make an informed decision.
The analytical piece was prepared by Emmet Kennedy — Presenter, Producer, and Owner of The Final Furlong Podcast, Broadcaster with TalkSPORT, and Broadcast Consultant — with the support of 1xBet Ireland.
1XBET AND TERMINUS PLATFORM IRELAND LIMITED DO NOT SPONSOR ANY OF THE EVENTS ABOVE AND HAVE NO PARTNERSHIP WITH ASSOCIATED SPORTS LEAGUES AND/OR ASSOCIATIONS.
