5 winning strategies for dominating the Ice Hockey Totals market
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Also commonly referred to as the Over/Under betting market, this is one of the most popular markets you can explore in this sport. All that a bettor has to do is wager that the game will end with a total number of goals scored within a given range.
No doubt, the idea of betting on total goals in hockey sounds pretty straightforward, and it is. However, there are elements that you have to put into consideration if you want to ensure you have a successful time at the fair. That is where applying winning strategies comes into the picture.
When you have clear betting strategies in your arsenal, your task becomes a lot easier. You’ll be able to wager more efficiently and make the most of high-value odds. Below is everything you need to know to get started on that front.
Strategy #1 – Evaluating the existing score trends
One thing has made sports betting considerably easier over the past decade. This is the fact that players all over the world have free access to many stats and trends. With these details, it becomes easier for you to do several things.
Along these lines, one of the first moves you can make is learning how to assess the offensive strength and, by extension, the scoring patterns and potentials of the meeting sides. The second thing you can do to further tilt the odds in your favor is assess the perceived defensive weaknesses of the two sides.
It is a fact that tracking both these variables takes a considerable amount of effort. However, you will be able to successfully pull it off by following the approaches recommended below:
Assessing the offensive capabilities and goal-scoring potential of teams
When betting on total goals, making this analysis is non-negotiable. After all, the number of goals two teams score on average has a direct bearing on whether your wager will win or not. To that, there are a number of variables that you need to familiarise yourself with. The most important of these are:
Expected Goals or xG: This refers to the quality of the shot and its likelihood of scoring;
Corsi (CF): This refers to all the shots that the sides fired during a match;
Fenwick (FF): This parameter covers all the shots played in a game, with the exception of blocked shots in hockey games;
High-Danger Scoring Chances (HDCF): With this variable, you learn how often certain sides get themselves into goal-scoring positions. It’s also an excellent indicator of goal-scoring potential.
Assessing these features will usually give you a good idea of how many goals to expect from a given team, on average.
Assessing defensive capabilities and shot volume stoppage
Hockey period totals are also strongly influenced by the strength of the defense on both sides. Gauging this element can be a little tricky. Some steps you can take toward that end include evaluating:
High-Danger Chances Against (HDCA): Look how the teams perform in terms of the number of goals conceded from the “Home Plate” region;
Failed Zone Exits: Check out how many times defenders lose possession before crossing the blue line in an ice hockey period;
Shot Suppression: Evaluate the number of missed and blocked shots observed when specific players are on and off the pitch.
This data will give you a clearer picture of what to expect from each side.
Strategy #2 – Considering goalie performance stats
Goalies have a powerful impact on ice hockey period totals, second only to forwards. It’s for this reason that you have to closely look at the level of performance of the individual in that role.
First, you have to ensure that you assess the capabilities of both goalies meeting in the competition. When betting on period totals from this perspective, you also have to prioritise certain metrics over others. Two of the most important of these are the form of the goalie and the matchup statistics of the player. See more below:
Considering the goalie statistics and matchup data
When considering this element in the National Hockey League or any similar tournament, there are certain rules of thumb that help to follow. The most essential of these are:
Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) of the goalie;
Goalie High-Danger Save Percentage (HDSV%);
Goalie Quality Start Ration (QS%);
Back-to-Back Performance Metrics;
Pass Vulnerability (Low-High);
Rate of Rebound Control Across Multiple Ice Hockey Games;
Lateral or Post-to-Post Speed;
High-Glove Heat Maps;
Low-Blocker Heat Maps;
Expected and Actual Goal Support
Individually, these metrics tell you different stories. Combined, they paint a comprehensive picture of what you can look forward to from players in this role.
Considering goalie fatigue and form
No strategy tips would be complete without accounting for the fatigue and form of the goalie. It’s essential to stress that fatigue and form can drastically alter the performance stats of a player. The further down the tournament or competition that you are, the more prominent these variables become.
There are a number of ways that you can gather the best ice hockey insights in this regard, starting with:
Analysing the Back-to-Back Save Percentage Decay of the Goalie;
Looking at the Trend of the Goalie’s Goal Saved Above Expected (GSAx);
Checking out On-Ice Load (OIL) Metrics;
Evaluating Total Rebounds Per Save (Rebound Control);
Considering the Depth and Positioning of the Goalie.
Be it a continental cup or the national league, checking out these variables is sure to give you a real edge when it counts.
Strategy #3 – Exploring period totals
Focusing on period totals in the game is another excellent way of entering and dominating the Over/Under market in Ireland. For those who may be aware, period totals help you shift the focal point from the entire game time. Instead, players get to predict the total number of goals likely to be scored within a specific 20-minute period.
As you would expect, staking on ice hockey period totals increases your chances of winning. This is because there is less time for things to spiral out of control in this case.
Naturally, there are a few points of consideration you need to keep in mind when going down this road. Two of the most important of these are what periods to focus on and the most efficient way to identify the high-scoring periods for goals in hockey games. Nailing this can help you consider gains in the totals market. Keep reading to see all you need to uncover on that front.
What happens when you focus on the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd period totals
When you aim to leverage the competitive odds in the 1st period, you’re essentially working with the freshness and nerves of the players. While there are always exceptions, many sports bettors tend to stake on Under 1.5 here. The reason is simple. With the exception of certain teams, most sides are usually highly conservative during this period.
In the 2nd period of a lot of games is where the strategies of managers/coaches start to come to light. This is where the teams switch ends but remain on the same benches. By extension, this puts their defensive zone a lot further away. As a result, should a side get pinned in their zone, it becomes impossible to substitute tired players. Due to this, bets of Over 1.5 or even Over 2.0 are common here.
When learning how to bet on hockey 3rd periods, you must also remember that you’re operating in a realm of chaos. The event is nearing its end, meaning that everything gets more frantic. Some teams go as far as swapping out the goalie for a forward at this stage. Under 1.5 goal bets are often seen here.
Spotting high-scoring periods in a match
Online betting records in this sport confirm that, broadly speaking, the 2nd period is almost always the one with the highest number of goals. This is made true in light of the fact that its point where the benches are furthest away. Also, teams getting pinned are a commonality at this stage, leading to the high-scoring nature of the period.
Many betting sites also offer information like live power play data and advanced possession metrics. You can look up the last stats for the two sides over the last 10 games. Doing this gives you a framework to shape your wager around.
Strategy #4 – Considering special teams and making situational adjustments
It’s a fact that observing betting trends makes all the difference in the Over/Under market in this sport. However, that isn’t to say that this game doesn’t offer infinitely more. More specifically, it’s essential to understand that just as many teams stay true to their trends, there are some that consistently operate outside the boundary of predictability.
In the same stretch, when you plan to bet on any event and win, there must always be a place for situational adjustments. Knowing when and how to make these compensations is absolutely critical to this endeavour.
In this section, you’ll see everything you need to know on that front:
Looking at variables like power plays, penalties, and more
To win in this sport, you have to consistently account for betting line disruptors. This is where knowing your stuff when it comes to power plays and penalties makes all the difference. Starting with power players, you should know that teams on power plays are statistically at least three times more likely to score than a side on even strength.
In the same stretch, penalties and penalty kills must shape your ice hockey betting tactics profoundly. This is because the former tilts the metre toward higher goal outcomes, while the latter effectively pulls it back.
More than that, there is also the “Referee Factor” to consider. Variables like referee adjustment and derbies can have a profound influence on the occurrence of special events.
Account for the influence of roster changes and injuries
Most ice hockey betting sites will naturally adjust the odds that you see according to the squad available on match day. This means that you also must account for any incidence of injury or roster changes.
For bettors to be able to do this efficiently, you have to have your finger on the pulse. This means trying to stay ahead of even the best ice hockey betting platforms in terms of information. Down that road, this means subscribing to newsletters so you get the word on any update as quickly as possible. From there, if you won’t be live betting, you can seal your bet before the odds for a given event drop.
Strategy #5 – Using live betting (or in-play betting) to your advantage
The average hockey betting strategy, as you will see with most sports, seems uniquely suited for live betting. For bettors who may not be familiar with the concept, live betting or in-play betting deviates from traditional betting. The key way that it does this is that it doesn’t require you to put in your stake before the match starts.
Typically, you can wager on any hockey league event after it starts and then cash out at any point in the game of your choice. The difference between in-play betting and regular betting is also evident in terms of your odds size. With the former, you get larger odds that fluctuate in response to in-game events. The latter locks in your bet at set odds the moment you place your stake.
Spotting in-play value and pushing for the win
The #1 betting strategy here is simple: ensure that you watch any event that you plan to live bet on. There is no substitute for this rule. Why? Because it is only when you follow the event that you can read the flow of things. The eye test will put you in a unique position to estimate potential outcomes based on the pattern unfolding before your eyes.
Betting on in-play without monitoring the game may put you at a real disadvantage. If nothing else, you may miss the chance to cash out when game odds are at their highest.
Knowing when to stake early and when to hold for odds movement
Learning how to bet here depends a great deal on your style. For some bettors, they wager as soon as the lines are out. The idea here is to exploit potential inefficiencies in an effort to value bet. Alternatively, it may also be sound practice to wait a little. Odds often move against players. You could be lucky enough to get bonus bets that will help you ride that wave to big wins.
The article was written by the authors of the 1xbet Ireland team.
