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Emmet Kennedy of The Final Furlong Podcast assesses the big staying handicap at Chepstow and explains why weight, age and trends point towards value alternatives in a race that often defines the Christmas jumps season.

In this 1xBet horse racing review, we will discuss one of the most challenging and prestigious races of the winter season. The extremely long distance and statistical trends indicate that betting on favourites would be an overrated strategy. Therefore, for horse racing enthusiasts, we have identified more balanced solutions with an optimal odds-to-risk ratio.

The Welsh Grand National is widely regarded as the ultimate test of a staying chaser. The 3m6½f trip, 23 fences and traditionally gruelling ground combine to make it one of the most demanding handicaps of the season. First run in 1895 and staged at Chepstow since 1949, it remains the most coveted prize in Welsh racing and a key betting race over the Christmas period.

This year’s market is headed by Jubilee Express, trained by Welshman Sam Thomas, who won this race in 2021 with Iwilldoit. There are some obvious similarities. Iwilldoit was two pounds out of the handicap that year, while Jubilee Express is currently one pound out. The key difference lies in the depth of opposition. Iwilldoit was kept out by Native River, a former Gold Cup winner rated 166, whereas Jubilee Express is now being edged out by Intense Raffles, rated 155 and winless since the 2024 Irish Grand National.

Ratings are a concern. Ten of the last twelve winners were rated 131 or higher, and Jubilee Express comes here on just 126. That said, the two winners to defy that benchmark were the 2022 and 2024 winners, so the trend may be shifting. On age, he fits well, with eight of the last twelve winners aged between six and eight. His victory in the Welsh National Trial, a route successfully used by Nassalam two years ago, leaves him six pounds well in off the same mark as when beaten a length and a half in this race last season.

Git Maker, trained by Jamie Snowden, brings solid spring form. He finished second to the subsequent Gold Cup winner Inothewayurthinkin in the Kim Muir, a race where the winner was effectively 31lb well in, and followed up with a staying-on third in the Scottish Grand National off a mark of 133, which is the same mark he runs off here. His form since has been quiet, but most of those runs came on quicker ground, and he has had just one soft-ground run since in what looked like a seasonal pipe-opener. Age is a slight concern at nine, as ten of the last twelve winners had already run at least twice that season.

Mr Vango would be a popular winner for Sarah Bradstock, but the trends are not kind. At nine years old and set to carry 11st 11lb, he faces a stiff task, with ten of the last twelve winners carrying 11st 3lb or less. While he is relatively lightly raced for his age, the bigger worry is that he endured a brutal race in the Beecher Chase just three weeks ago, which could leave a mark.

Local interest will be strong around Haiti Couleurs, trained by Rebecca Curtis, who is yet to win this race. Weight is the obvious concern, as 11st 13lb would be the highest carried by a winner in the race’s long history. However, his victories in the National Hunt Chase and Irish Grand National last season marked him down as a rapidly progressive stayer. His Betfair Chase run was far too bad to be true, but that performance has since been explained by treatment for a sore sacroiliac joint. This sort of searching test should suit him far better, and an important trend in his favour is that eleven of the last twelve winners had already run at Chepstow. He has done so once over hurdles and once over fences, winning a maiden hurdle by eighteen lengths and finishing a promising second on chase debut.

Collector’s Item is one who makes appeal at the weights. He was a staying-on length and a half behind Mr Vango in the London National last season. Since then, Mr Vango has gone up 20lb courtesy of wins in the Peter Marsh and Midlands National, while Collector’s Item is just 2lb higher here, despite winning the Somerset National and finishing second in the Welsh National Trial. That leaves him eighteen pounds better off with Mr Vango and three pounds well in with the handicapper. He has run at Chepstow before, will relish the return to a marathon trip, and is trained by connections who have won this race in 2002 and 2010.

Another to note is O’Connell, winner of this season’s London National, who runs off the same mark. His stamina looks assured, having finished second in last year’s Eider Chase, and he arrives with the right preparation. The slight negatives are his age, at nine, and the fact he has yet to race at Chepstow. Still, Sue Smith and Joel Parkinson continue to enjoy an excellent season, operating at a 19% strike rate.

Joe Tizzard has also made a strong start to the campaign and may be reaping the benefits of a few well-handicapped horses after a quieter spell for the yard. His father won this race in 2016 and 2018, and he is represented by Rock My Way, who enjoyed a solid novice chasing campaign last season. He won a handicap at Doncaster, finished second in the National Hunt Chase and fifth in the Scottish Grand National, where he finally looked to have ironed out his jumping issues. A career-best RPR at Ascot last time out supports that view. While he is nine pounds higher now, he remains unexposed as a seven-year-old and may yet have more improvement to come.

With weight and age against several of the market principals, and the favourite currently out of the handicap and rated lower than the typical winner, this looks a race where value may lie away from the head of the market, especially if the ground deteriorates. For me, the improving Rock My Way makes plenty of appeal, while the attractively weighted Collector’s Item also stands out as a strong each-way option in a wide-open renewal.

Betting on the Welsh Grand National, Leopardstown Grade 1s or Kempton’s Christmas racing? Follow the festive action with 1xBet and get ahead of the Cheltenham markets while the value is still there.

The article was prepared by Emmet Kennedy — Presenter, Producer, and Owner of The Final Furlong Podcast, Broadcaster on talkSPORT, and Broadcast Consultant —  with the support of 1xBet Ireland.

1XBET AND TERMINUS PLATFORM IRELAND LIMITED DO NOT SPONSOR ANY OF THE EVENTS REFERENCED ABOVE, NOR DO THEY HAVE ANY PARTNERSHIP WITH ANY ASSOCIATED SPORTS LEAGUES AND/OR GOVERNING BODIES.