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Emmet Kennedy of The Final Furlong Podcast assesses Kempton’s Christmas showpiece and explains why the form, the track and the jockey all point in one direction.

In this 1xBet horse racing review, we take a look at the top favourites of the key Christmas tournament at Kempton Racecourse. Using statistical analysis and an examination of the track profile, we will answer the main question every fan is asking: who will cross the finish line first?

Use the 1xBet horse racing tips for responsible play and to make well-considered decisions based on real data rather than intuition.

The King George VI Chase remains the centrepiece of Christmas racing, even if recent history has taken some of the romance away. Four of the last seven winners returned double-figure prices, and few went on to dominate the spring. Even so, this is still a race that matters, because it belongs to horses who transcend the sport.

Wayward Lad, Desert Orchid, One Man, Florida Pearl, Best Mate, Kicking King, Long Run and, above all, Kauto Star, who turned Kempton into his personal playground with five victories in the Christmas showpiece race. That is why the prospect that this could be Kempton’s final King George is nothing short of scandalous. A racecourse minutes from London, home to one of jump racing’s crown jewels, allowed to fade away would be an epic failure. But it is a time for joy, not anger, and with that in mind let’s focus on what should be a cracking renewal of a race that dates back to 1937.

Last year’s first and second, Banbridge and Il Est Francais, are available at big prices to repeat the feat. Both have obvious questions to answer after being beaten 29 lengths and pulled up respectively on their seasonal returns. They could improve markedly for those runs, and both now have top-class jockeys on board, with Sean Bowen riding Banbridge for the first time and Harry Cobden taking over on Il Est Francais. They are of interest for forecast purposes, but backing either outright requires a leap of faith.

The Jukebox Man impressed in last season’s Kauto Star Novices’ Chase over course and distance, and his comeback win was boosted at the weekend when Iroko scored at Ascot. He remains lightly raced and proven at Kempton, but his overall form still looks a notch below what is usually required to win this race, but it would be no shock should he run well.

Djelo is a horse I have followed closely since before his British debut at Exeter three years ago. He arrives here in fine form after back-to-back wins, but his Grade 1 record is hard to ignore. Five attempts at the top level have yielded just two places, and he may ultimately be better suited to races like the Ascot Chase or Denman Chase.

History is unforgiving when it comes to stamina. Seventeen of the last twenty winners had already won over at least three miles before lifting the King George. Jango Baie may yet become the fourth in 21 runnings to defy that trend, but precedent is thin. Captain Chris and Vautour both finished second in the King George after winning the 1965 Chase, while Wayward Lad won the same race in 1981 before landing the first of his three King Georges in 1982. No horse has completed that double in the same season.

With all due respect to Master Chewy and Croke Park, that leaves the Willie Mullins pair Gaelic Warrior and Fact To File, who fought out a memorable finish to the John Durkan Memorial at Punchestown. Watching it in the stands, it appeared Fact To File was about to collar his stablemate, but on review Paul Townend judged it perfectly, having just enough in reserve to repel the challenge. Fact To File is undeniably classy, but stamina remains the nagging doubt. His Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase win at Cheltenham owed plenty to class, and while there is no shame in being beaten by Galopin Des Champs over three miles at Leopardstown, Grangeclare West did pass him in an Irish Gold Cup. He was also sent off 11/10 favourite for the Punchestown Champion Chase despite the presence of Marine Nationale, and was beaten almost from the outset. A drop back to that two-mile trip later in the season may be worth another go.

He has become the default selection for several respected pundits, but in my view he is making the market for Gaelic Warrior. A five-time Grade 1 winner and still only seven, a year younger than Fact To File, Gaelic Warrior bids to give Townend back-to-back King George victories and Willie Mullins a third success in the race. He remains something of an enigma, but perhaps Gaelic Warrior is not quite as mercurial as he seems. A close look at his form reveals an interesting pattern. Since joining Willie Mullins and running over 2m3f or further on a right-handed track, he is unbeaten in five starts, claiming the scalps of Affordale Fury by 10 lengths, Inothewayurthinkin by 15 lengths, Il Etait Temps by five and a half, Appreciate It by five, and Fact To File by a neck.

Patrick Mullins gave him a great ride on his first attempt at three miles over fences when he won the Aintree Bowl, a form that looks even better after the runner-up, Grey Dawning, won the Betfair Chase on the bridle. He is race-fit, his stamina is assured, and he is trained by the dominant force in jump racing and ridden by its outstanding jockey. He also has a proven form in the race. Fact To File’s presence means we are now getting 11/4 about a horse who was best priced sub-7/4 last week.

Given his age and profile, it is entirely possible we have yet to see the best of him. This race looks tailor-made, and it would be no surprise if this were the first of multiple King George victories, although where the King George is run may yet play a part in that. At around 11/4 with 1xBet in Ireland, Gaelic Warrior is a Christmas cracker.

Bet on the King George VI Chase and all the Christmas action at Kempton with 1xBet, and get ahead of the Cheltenham Festival markets while the value is still there.

The analytical piece was prepared by Emmet Kennedy — Presenter, Producer, and Owner of The Final Furlong Podcast, Broadcaster with TalkSPORT, and Broadcast Consultant —  with the support of 1xBet Ireland.

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