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We analyse the key runners, trainer angles and race trends to find the value in Ascot’s Grade One

In this 1xBet horse racing feature, we will explore the history of the Clarence House Chase, assess the chances of the leading contenders, and select the most attractive markets for the upcoming event.

The Clarence House Chase began life as a handicap, with the inaugural running won by the legendary Desert Orchid, who defied top weight of 12 stone. The race proved so successful that it was upgraded to Grade One status in 2007, and in both guises it has been an important stepping stone to the Queen Mother Champion Chase.

Seven horses have won both races in the same season, including Viking Flagship, Master Minded, and Sprinter Sacre. However, there have been only two multiple winners in the race’s history: Master Minded, successful twice two years apart, and Un de Sceaux, who landed a remarkable hat-trick, albeit with his second win staged at Cheltenham.

Jonbon bids to join an elite club

Attempting to add his name to that shortlist is Jonbon, who seeks back-to-back wins in the race for Nicky Henderson, the most successful trainer in Clarence House history with seven victories.

Jonbon fits several major trends:

• 10 of the last 12 winners were Grade One winners: only two in this field qualify

• 9 of the last 12 had won between 15f–17f at least eight times: Jonbon is the only runner who meets that benchmark

However, there are negatives:

• 10 of the last 12 winners were aged 7–9 – Jonbon is 10

• 10 of 12 won on their previous start – Jonbon was beaten the last twice

• 11 of 12 had already won that season – he hasn’t

He sets the standard but must defy age and recent form patterns.

Gidleigh Park – lightly raced and untested

Gidleigh Park shares similar concerns. Rated 156, he has just one chase win, and although he ran at Ascot this season, he has raced only once. The trends are firm here:
⭐ 9 of the last 12 winners had run twice that season.
He may be classy, but he lacks mileage.

Thistle Ask – the improver

Rated 158, Thistle Ask brings momentum, having won four from four this campaign. Although lacking Grade One experience and yet to race at Ascot, he was highly impressive in winning the Grade Two Desert Orchid Chase last time.

That may be more important than it first appears:
⭐ 5 of the last 12 Clarence House winners came straight from the Desert Orchid
⭐ 4 of those did the double

His profile screams “upward curve,” though:

• Only six chase starts

• Just five wins at the key 15f–17f distance

He cannot be ignored but still needs to prove he belongs at this level.

Il Etait Temps – the trends horse and form standout

Il Etait Temps is the one runner who ticks almost every statistical box.

Trend matches:

• Age: 8 – ideal

• Runs this season: 2, both wins

• Rating: Well above 160

• Grade One success: 5 wins over fences + one over hurdles

• Chase wins: 7, comfortably above the key threshold

• Distance wins: 6 between 15f–17f

He hasn’t raced at Ascot, but crucially:
⭐ He is 2 from 2 at Sandown, and form tends to transfer well between Sandown and Ascot
⭐ 4 Tingle Creek winners have run in the Clarence House the same season – all four won

This may be deeper than the prices suggest, but on trends, ratings and current form, it is extremely difficult to argue that Il Etait Temps won’t secure a fourth Clarence House for Willie Mullins.

The analytical piece was prepared by Emmet Kennedy — Presenter, Producer, and Owner of The Final Furlong Podcast, Broadcaster with TalkSPORT, and Broadcast Consultant —  with the support of 1xBet horse racing.

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